A major new study commissioned by the previous Biden administration and published independently this week has concluded that no amount of alcohol is safe for health, with risks beginning to escalate from a single daily drink. The research, released in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, directly contradicts long‑held assumptions about moderate drinking and reinforces a growing scientific consensus that alcohol offers no protective effect against mortality.
The study provides comprehensive US estimates of lifetime risks associated with alcohol‑attributable death and disease. Researchers found that consuming around seven drinks a week — the equivalent of one daily — is linked to one alcohol‑attributable death per 1,000 people over a lifetime. That risk rises sharply with higher consumption. Even levels long considered “moderate” increase the likelihood of premature death and contribute to more than 200 diseases, including heart conditions, breast cancer, colon cancer, rectal cancer, and dementia. Women appear to face higher cancer risks per unit of alcohol consumed than men, according to the study.
These findings align with improved research methods that have debunked the earlier belief that moderate drinking benefited heart health. Older studies failed to account for confounding variables such as education, income and access to healthcare; when those factors were controlled for, the perceived benefits disappeared. A 2019 study in The Lancet similarly found that moderate drinking slightly increased the risk of stroke and high blood pressure, offering no protective health effects.
Dr. Timothy Naimi, director of the University of Victoria’s Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research and a co‑author of the new study, said the evidence is now clear. “Less is better when it comes to health,” he said. The study was one of two government‑commissioned reviews intended to inform the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. However, researchers allege it was sidelined by the Trump administration after pressure from the alcohol industry and a congressional committee.
Allegations of political interference
Robert Vincent, a former alcohol policy official at the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) who led the multi‑year research effort, accused the Trump administration of “sidelining” the study. In an editorial accompanying the published research, Vincent wrote: “The challenges confronting alcohol policy today are not rooted in scientific uncertainty. What remains contested is whether evidence will meaningfully inform policy when it conflicts with commercial interests.” He told the Associated Press that he was “asked to kill the study” but refused. Vincent was later laid off as part of a government reduction in force.
The Trump administration has denied the allegations. Emily Hilliard, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), said the department and the U.S. Department of Agriculture “reviewed the study alongside the broader body of available scientific evidence and followed the established process for developing the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.” She added, “The Guidelines are informed by the totality of the scientific record, not any single report or analysis.” HHS did not immediately respond to Vincent’s claim that he was ordered to stop the work.
Following the release of a draft report last year, the alcohol industry actively campaigned to discredit the study. The Distilled Spirits Council and other industry groups spent millions on lobbying efforts. A House oversight committee also issued a report labelling the study “fraught with bias” and accusing its authors of having predetermined conclusions based on their prior research and affiliations. The researchers maintain they underwent thorough vetting for conflicts of interest and that the findings are scientifically sound.
Current guidelines lack clear warnings
The Dietary Guidelines for Americans released earlier this year advised consuming “less alcohol for better overall health” — a message the study’s authors do not dispute. However, they argue that the guidance fails to provide the specific, practical advice that would help drinkers understand the actual risks. Unlike previous guidelines, which defined moderate drinking as up to one drink per day for women and up to two for men, the current version omits specific quantity recommendations and warnings about cancer risk – a shift that critics attribute to industry lobbying.
“I’m glad that they had a message that corresponds with our science, and that is that less is best,” said Dr. Naimi. “But giving people quantity information is necessary to make a truly informative guideline.” The researchers contend their findings support a clearer recommendation: that current adult drinkers should consume one drink or fewer per day. A standard US drink contains 14 grams of pure alcohol, equivalent to a 12‑ounce can of beer, a five‑ounce glass of wine, or a shot of spirits.
The new study deliberately diverged from the other government‑commissioned review, which had suggested moderate alcohol use was associated with a decreased risk of all‑cause mortality despite an increased risk of certain diseases. Co‑author Priscilla Martinez‑Matyszczyk, deputy scientific director at the Public Health Institute’s Alcohol Research Group, explained that their study specifically examined alcohol‑attributable mortality to avoid confounding factors. She also pushed back on a remark by Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, who described drinking as “a social lubricant that brings people together” and suggested social benefits might outweigh health risks. “I don’t know of any studies that have teased out the social effect from the health effect,” Martinez‑Matyszczyk said.
About half of Americans aged 12 or older report consuming alcohol in the past month, making it the most commonly used addictive substance in the country. Yet a Gallup poll from July 2025 found that the percentage of US adults who report drinking has fallen to a record low of 54%, coinciding with growing public awareness that even moderate consumption carries health risks. A separate 2024 study in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs estimated that more than a third of US adults are harmed by someone else’s drinking.
