England are all but certain of a place in the knockout phase of the World Cup despite being held to a goalless draw by Ghana in Boston on Tuesday night. The result leaves Thomas Tuchel’s side top of Group L on four points, level with Ghana, but Croatia’s victory over Panama means England cannot finish lower than third in the group. Four points will almost certainly be enough to advance as one of the eight best third-placed teams under the expanded 48-team format – a safety net that makes progression a formality barring a collapse of extraordinary proportions.
How England can top the group
FIFA’s decision to prioritise head-to-head records over goal difference gives England a clear path to first place. To win Group L, Tuchel’s side simply need to beat Panama in their final group match and match or better Ghana’s result against Croatia. Because Tuesday’s draw was goalless, Ghana could still pip England to top spot on goal difference, so a commanding margin of victory over Panama is advisable. If England do finish first, they will face one of the best third-placed teams drawn from Groups E, H, I, J and K in the round of 32.
What if England finish second or third?
Should England slip to runners-up in Group L, the prize is a last-32 meeting with the runners-up of Group K – currently Portugal. That would evoke memories of the infamous quarter-final showdown between the two sides in Gelsenkirchen 20 years ago. In the far less likely scenario that England progress as one of the best third-placed teams, they would face the winners of Group K, which as things stand is Colombia. The expanded tournament, the first World Cup to feature 48 teams in 12 groups of four, introduces a new round of 32, with the top two from each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing. Knockout matches cannot end in a draw; they will be decided by extra time and, if necessary, penalties, with an extra substitution permitted during extra time.
Who England could meet in the round of 32
As it stands, England’s most likely opponent if they win Group L is Cape Verde, the tournament debutants who have already impressed with draws against Spain and Uruguay. The west African nation of 550,000 people have become the darlings of the World Cup, their resilience embodied by goalkeeper Vozinha. The match would take place in Atlanta on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, at 5pm UK time. Other potential third-placed opponents include teams from Group K – where Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan are in contention – or from Groups E, I and J. DR Congo need a win against Uzbekistan to secure third place, while Portugal face Colombia in a decisive group match.
If England finish second, their round of 32 fixture would be against the runners-up of Group K. Portugal currently occupy that slot, but if they lose to Colombia, DR Congo could leapfrog them. That match is scheduled for Friday, July 3, 2026, at midnight UK time in Toronto. In the improbable event England qualify as a best third-placed team, they would face Group K winners Colombia on Saturday, July 4, at 2:30am UK time in Kansas. Colombia have already secured their place in the last 32 after a win over DR Congo, and their key players include James Rodríguez and Luis Díaz.
FIFA’s tiebreaking rules – head-to-head record first, then goal difference, goals scored, overall goal difference, fair play record and FIFA ranking – mean England’s path is clear but not yet locked. The draw with Ghana was the first time England had failed to score in a World Cup match despite holding 78.8% possession, their highest ever in the competition without a goal. Tuchel, who took charge in March 2025, has given his attacking players freedom, aiming not to “disturb the music,” but the stalemate against Ghana has raised questions about team selection and whether overconfidence set in after a 4-2 opening win over Croatia. Only three times have England failed to progress from a World Cup group stage – in 1950, 1958 and most recently in 2014, when they finished fourth behind Costa Rica, Uruguay and Italy. Since then, England have finished fourth and suffered a quarter-final exit. The 1966 final remains their only appearance on that stage, and Tuchel is tasked with ending a 60-year wait for a second gold star.
Harry Kane, who has scored five goals in five international appearances against African nations, three of them at World Cups, is on the verge of surpassing Gary Lineker as England’s all-time top scorer in the competition. The draw in Boston, however, means the captain and his teammates will have to wait until their final group game to confirm top spot and the favourable draw that comes with it.
