Sweden finished third in Group F with four points, scraping into the knockout phase as one of the best third-placed teams. That slender margin of qualification belies the drama of a campaign that swung from a five-goal demolition of Tunisia to a five-goal thrashing by the Netherlands before a nervy draw with Japan ensured their place in the Round of 32.
Group standing
France, by contrast, cruised through Group I with a perfect record – three wins from three, ten goals scored and none conceded in their final two matches. Didier Deschamps’s side topped the table undefeated, while Sweden’s four points left them third in their own group, behind the Netherlands and Japan. The tournament’s expanded format allowed the best third-placed teams to advance, and Sweden’s goal difference – minus one after that 5-1 loss – was enough to keep them alive.
Tumultuous pool phase
Graham Potter’s men began their World Cup in spectacular fashion. On 15 June in Monterrey, they put five past Tunisia, with Yasin Ayari scoring twice – including a long-range strike – and Alexander Isak adding his 18th international goal. The 5-1 victory suggested a side capable of matching anyone. Five days later in Houston, the dream unravelled. The Netherlands swept Sweden aside 5-1, exposing vulnerabilities that had been masked by the opening flourish. Potter’s side have now won three, drawn three and lost three in the ten matches under his management, a record that underscores inconsistency against top opposition.
The final group game against Japan in Dallas became a survival test. Sweden needed at least a point and took the lead through an Isak assist, but Japan equalised to make it 1-1. The draw was enough to send Sweden through, but the cost was high: defender Isak Hien, a key presence at the back, tore a hamstring during the match and has been ruled out of the remainder of the tournament.
Despite the defensive setbacks, Sweden’s attacking partnership has been a bright spot. Isak and Viktor Gyökeres have combined for five goals and five assists in the group stage – Isak with one goal and three assists, Gyökeres with two assists. Anthony Elanga and captain Victor Lindelöf provide further experience, while midfielders Daniel Svensson and Lucas Bergvall offer energy. But the loss of Hien leaves Potter with a hole in his backline as they prepare to face a France side that scored ten goals in the group stage, including a 4-1 dismantling of Norway in their final outing.
Match preview
France enter the Round of 32 as tournament favourites, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 75.1% probability of winning within 90 minutes. Kylian Mbappé, the captain and all-time top scorer with 100 caps, leads an attack that also features Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé. Didier Deschamps missed the final group game after his mother’s passing but has returned to the dugout for this fixture. His squad depth across all positions is formidable, and the team’s defensive record – three goals conceded in three matches – suggests few weaknesses.
Sweden’s best hope may lie in the counter-attack. Potter has acknowledged that his side “have nothing to lose” and has indicated a flexible 3-4-3 formation designed to sit deep and spring quickly through Elanga, Isak and Gyökeres. “We have to play the game of our lives,” the coach said, referring to France’s quality. History favours the French: they have won 12 of the 23 previous meetings, including the most recent encounter, with Sweden claiming six victories.
The result also carries wider significance. Last night Paraguay produced a major upset, beating Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw in regulation time. Germany’s elimination marks their third consecutive World Cup disappointment, and the winner of tonight’s match in East Rutherford – played at the New York New Jersey Stadium with Dutch referee Danny Desmond Makkelie in charge – will face Paraguay in the Round of 16. That prospect may provide inspiration for a Swedish side that have already shown, in fits and starts, that they can punish any opponent on their day.
