Over one million young Britons aged 16 to 24 are currently not in education, employment or training — a figure that represents one in eight of the entire age group and has risen sharply over the past year, according to official data. The latest estimate, covering January to March 2026, puts the number at 1,012,000, an increase of 89,000 compared with the same period in 2025 and 55,000 higher than the previous quarter. The NEET rate now stands at 13.5 percent, close to its highest point since 2014, and has been on an upward trajectory since 2021. While the peak of 16.9 percent in mid-2011 following the financial crisis remains higher, the current trend has prompted a commission led by former health secretary Alan Milburn to warn that the country faces a “lost generation” unless action is taken.
The scale of the problem
The data, drawn from official labour market statistics, also reveals a shift in the composition of the NEET group. In the October-to-December quarter of 2025, 57 percent of those classified as NEET were economically inactive — meaning they were not looking for work — while 43 percent were unemployed and actively seeking. The proportion of inactive young people has risen significantly, particularly among young men. The UK’s NEET rate is also high by international standards: among European countries, only Romania has a worse record. The Milburn commission’s interim report, which concentrates on analysis with recommendations due in the autumn, warns that numbers will continue to grow unless the underlying drivers are addressed.
Why the system is failing
The report argues that current government policy is failing young people — and that the problem is too often approached from the wrong direction. Political attacks on welfare spending and “mean-spirited criticisms of ‘kids these days’,” the commission says, distract from the real causes: unemployment, rising ill health and inadequate training. It points to a “record of failure” across multiple fronts. One of the most significant is the decline in entry-level jobs, particularly in hospitality, leisure and retail — sectors that traditionally offered young people their first chance in the labour market. Vacancies in hospitality have halved in the past four years, and many young jobseekers submit dozens of applications only to receive automated rejections.
Health-related Universal Credit claims have risen most in areas where jobs are scarce, and mental health conditions have become a growing barrier. The proportion of NEET individuals who cite mental health as their main problem has nearly doubled over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the rise of generative AI has coincided with a roughly one-third drop in entry-level vacancies since late 2022. Research suggests that firms highly exposed to AI have reduced employment, particularly in junior positions, though customer-facing roles requiring direct human interaction appear more resilient. Analysts have predicted that up to three million low-skilled jobs could be lost to automation by 2035.
Educational reforms have also left less academic pupils poorly served. Overly restrictive GCSE combinations and a chaotic series of announcements about further education qualifications have undermined the sector. The Apprenticeship Levy, introduced under the Conservatives in 2017, has been described as a disaster: funds have been diverted to training existing staff while apprenticeship starts among young people fell by 35 percent in a decade. Employers have converted existing training into apprenticeships to claim levy funds, and concerns about low completion rates remain. Meanwhile, the expansion of higher education was not matched by sufficient thought for the more than 60 percent of young people who do not go from school to university, and further education continues to play “second fiddle” with lower per-student funding.
A new mission for government
Mr Milburn’s commission frames this generation as a new mission for the government, which took office without a clear enough sense of purpose or detailed plans. The report calls for a completely new “participation system” in which public services across work and pensions, health, education and business departments pull together to encourage work. It notes that one of the challenges is that the issue straddles these departments, making coordination difficult. The government has already launched a Youth Guarantee backed by £820 million over three years, designed to ensure every 16- to 24-year-old has access to education, training or a job pathway. It includes enhanced support for Universal Credit claimants, guaranteed paid work for some 18- to 21-year-olds, and the development of Youth Hubs that bring together employment support with health and housing services. From spring 2025, the Apprenticeship Levy is due to be replaced by a Growth and Skills Levy intended to offer more flexibility and a broader focus on workforce training, with tailored support for small businesses.
But the Milburn commission argues that these measures, while welcome, do not go far enough. The report emphasises that the problems start early: housing inflation has made it harder for young adults to leave home, and the disorienting effect of being perpetually plugged into the online world without a role in the local economy is significant. Inequality plays a central role, with disparities in wealth, geography and ethnicity producing wide variations in NEET rates between local authorities. The report’s conclusion is that the current system is failing young people — not that young people themselves lack effort.
The biggest piece of the jigsaw
As automation continues to disrupt the world of work, and investors rake in profits from stock markets buoyed by artificial intelligence, the commission insists that the most critical element remains the availability of jobs. Ministers should do more to make young people work-ready through better education, training and support, the report says, but at the end of that effort there must be work to go to. The number of entry-level roles in hospitality, leisure and retail has declined sharply, and surging employment costs — including increases in payroll taxes and the minimum wage in 2025 — have led firms to scale back recruitment, especially in sectors that employ younger workers. The report warns that unless the government tackles both the supply of skilled, healthy young people and the demand for their labour, the NEET numbers will continue to rise, deepening the scarring effects that time out of work or training has on physical and mental health, earnings and life chances.
