The chief executive of Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has warned that flights could be cancelled this summer due to a global shortage of jet fuel, a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the closure of a critical global shipping route.
Global Instability and Economic Shockwaves
The immediate trigger for the aviation warning is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a geopolitical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas flow. This blockade has sent energy markets into severe volatility, with the price of Brent crude oil surging and risk premiums adding an estimated $14 to the cost of a barrel. The Bank of England has warned that the resulting financial shocks could lead to increased mortgage payments for UK households.
The situation has been described as the greatest global energy security challenge in history, with echoes of the 1970s energy crisis. It threatens not just higher prices but acute supply shortages, currency volatility, and heightened risks of stagflation and recession, contributing to global stock market declines. For airlines, the implications extend beyond fuel costs to heightened security concerns, potential route disruptions, increased insurance premiums, and a likely reduction in traveller confidence.
This instability is unfolding against a backdrop of a fractured transatlantic relationship. The administration of Donald Trump has openly mocked key allies, with the former president taunting France’s Emmanuel Macron and deriding the UK’s military capabilities. Such behaviour, following incidents like the attempted annexation of Greenland, has fundamentally altered European perceptions of US reliability. A stark example emerged this week as Italy’s government, led by Giorgia Meloni, declined a US request to use a Sicilian airbase. The lesson being drawn in European capitals is that the United States may not be the solution to a crisis, but increasingly, the source of it.
Brexit’s Compounding Economic Toll
For Britain, these external storms break over an economy already weakened by its departure from the European Union. Research indicates that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by an estimated 6% to 8%, while business investment was between 12% and 18% lower than if the UK had remained. The nation’s trade, roughly half of which is with the EU, has grown more slowly than comparable economies, with the negative impact accumulating gradually over time.
This economic underperformance exacerbates a severe cost of living crisis, disproportionately affecting lower-income households who face higher inflation rates due to greater exposure to food and energy costs. Many families are struggling to meet basic expenses, with a significant proportion unable to afford an unexpected bill, creating a backdrop of increased household stress and anxiety.
Domestically, the political landscape reflects this strain. The Conservative government faces pressure from its Eurosceptic wing and the populist Reform party over migration, while the opposition Labour party acknowledges Brexit’s negative economic impact. Notably, the architect of Brexit, Nigel Farage, is now conspicuously quiet on the subject, as public sentiment has shifted decisively.
The Path to a Closer UK-EU Partnership
In response to a more volatile world, a political recalibration is underway. Labour leader Keir Starmer has pledged a “reset” of UK-EU relations, aiming to reduce trade barriers. While maintaining red lines on rejoining the single market, customs union, or restoring full freedom of movement, his party is negotiating for a veterinary agreement to ease agri-food checks and a mutual recognition deal for professional qualifications.
Public opinion is moving in tandem. A recent YouGov poll indicated 63% of Britons would now vote to rejoin the EU, with support particularly strong among younger demographics. However, this support is conditional, dropping significantly if rejoining meant giving up the UK’s previous opt-outs on the pound and the Schengen border-free area.
A tangible symbol of the thaw is the proposed UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS), which would allow young people to live, work, and study across borders for a limited period. Both sides have agreed to work towards a scheme, though negotiations continue on details like duration and participant caps, with the EU seeking stays of up to four years. The concept has gained broad popularity, even among Leave voters. Meanwhile, technical discussions on aligning food and drink regulations—which could, for instance, affect marmalade labelling—now provoke little of the fury such topics once did.
The combined forces of global insecurity and economic necessity are drawing Britain and Europe closer. The will for a new, tighter partnership is building, driven by a stark realisation that in a dangerous world, solidarity with one’s nearest neighbours is not a matter of nostalgia, but of pragmatic national interest.
