As the populist rightwing One Nation party surges in the polls, its climate policy remains firmly rooted in a rejection of decades of scientific evidence and a readiness to embrace conspiracy theories. The party explicitly states it is “the only political party to question climate science” and maintains that after thirty years of work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is insufficient evidence of global warming or predicted climate catastrophes.
Climate science denial and cherrypicked data
One Nation does not accept that the planet, or Australia, is warming. It claims extreme weather was more prevalent before 1960 than at any time since. Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at the Australian National University who researches heatwaves, described the claim as “bullshit”, pointing to a “wealth of evidence that extreme heat events are increasing worldwide since the 1950s”. She noted increased intensity of droughts, heatwaves and tropical cyclones, adding: “You can’t argue with stupid.”
The party’s position on historical temperatures relies heavily on cherrypicked data. It points to temperature readings from before 1910 to argue that it was hotter then. Researchers who have examined those early records found that temperatures from 1860 to 1909 were similar to those from 1910 to 1959, with significant warming occurring since 1960. The independent Berkeley Earth group, which also uses pre-1910 data, has shown that Australia has warmed substantially since the 1880s. The Bureau of Meteorology does not include pre-1910 observations in its official long-term dataset because the equipment used — thermometers exposed to the elements — was non-standard and less reliable. That dataset shows Australia has warmed by 1.5C since 1910.
One Nation nevertheless highlights a single weather station, Nobby’s in Newcastle, claiming it shows no pattern of warming and therefore the entire continent cannot be warming. Dr Linden Ashcroft, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne who has led research into older temperature records and previously worked at the Bureau of Meteorology, called this “a classic example of cherrypicking, where a person finds a piece of information that supports the story they want to tell while ignoring all the other evidence. Temperatures are warming across Australia.”
The party also references a 2015 study on a 41,000-year cycle of the Earth’s tilt to suggest that natural cycles cause severe droughts and floods. One of the study’s authors, Professor Kristine DeLong of Louisiana State University, whose work uses coral records to reconstruct past climate, said this was “a common trope of the anti-human-induced climate change movement”. She explained that natural climate changes occur on timescales of 100,000 to 10,000 years, adding: “These changes are not on the timescale of a human life span or cause weather events.”
Earlier versions of One Nation’s energy and climate policies were literal cut-and-paste jobs from the website of the now-defunct climate denial group the Galileo Movement, where the former coalminer Malcolm Roberts was the project manager before being elected as a One Nation senator. Roberts founded the Galileo Movement in 2011 and wrote a report titled “Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Facts” that claimed burning coal cannot raise CO2 levels because they are determined by nature. The group’s patron was radio personality Alan Jones. Dr John Cook, an expert on climate science denial at the University of Melbourne who founded Skeptical Science, said One Nation is “not only out of touch with the scientific evidence, they’re even out of touch with the rest of the climate denial community”. He noted that misinformation has shifted from science denial to attacking solutions, because “the scientific evidence for human-caused global warming is so undeniable, denying the science has become untenable”. Cook’s research identifies techniques used by denialists, including “fake experts, logical fallacies, impossible expectations, cherry picking, and conspiracy theories” — a framework known as FLICC.
Research from the CSIRO a decade ago suggests that views on climate change can be influenced by how a person votes, rather than the other way round, meaning votes for One Nation could lead to more people rejecting climate science.
Conspiracy theories and the ‘net zero’ agenda
One Nation does not see “net zero” as an attempt to avoid the worst outcomes of the climate crisis, but instead as “a vehicle for creating a socialist Australia in which citizens are forced under comprehensive government control”. The party claims this is part of a conspiracy to restrict and control people’s movement, diets, employment, housing, education and purchases. It points to a quote attributed to former World Economic Forum chair Klaus Schwab – “you’ll own nothing and be happy” – to support the claim. In reality, Schwab never made the statement. It originated in an essay from a Danish MP about a hypothetical future city where renting replaces ownership and AI does most of the work.
The party wants Australia to leave the Paris Agreement, arguing it is “economic suicide”, and would close down the federal climate change department “and all related agencies, regulations and programs”.
Embracing coal and misrepresenting costs
One Nation blames “net zero” and renewable energy for rising electricity prices and the cost of living. Dr Dylan McConnell, an energy systems expert at the University of New South Wales, called the claim “a load of rubbish”, explaining that Australia has “an ageing system that needs replacing and the cheapest way to do that is with renewables and storage”. He pointed out that price rises are driven by rising international gas prices, supercharged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and increased coal costs. Research from the CSIRO suggests that if 82% of Australia’s electricity came from renewables backed by storage, the cost of generation would be a third less than current prices. The CSIRO’s GenCost 2025-26 report confirms that a renewable-led system is the lowest-cost option, with solar being the cheapest technology and onshore wind cheaper than coal and gas.
One Nation claims the “cost to Australian taxpayers” of the renewable energy transition is “estimated at $1.5tn”. This is a misrepresentation. Net Zero Australia, the group behind the estimate, has said the figure is not a cost to taxpayers but an estimate of cumulative capital investment needed by 2030 to reach net zero, most of which would come from overseas investors. Australia’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which has led investment in net-zero initiatives, had crowded in an additional A$65bn in private sector capital by June 2025.
On coal, One Nation wants three modern “ultra super-critical” coal plants built, claiming they could generate electricity at $50 to $70 per megawatt hour. The party says these plants have lower emissions than Australia’s current fleet – a strange justification from a party that rejects the link between CO2 and global heating. The CSIRO’s detailed estimates put the cost of the same plants at between $121 and $195 per MWh, depending on how often they run. Researchers at Griffith University found that excluding solar and wind from the energy system in recent years would have meant wholesale electricity prices 30-50% higher.
One Nation also claims Australia has the highest electricity prices in the world outside Europe. According to the Australian Energy Council, Australian prices are just one cent per kilowatt-hour higher than the OECD average. When prices are adjusted to account for the cost of living across different economies, Australian prices fall well below the OECD average and are equal to or less than those of more than 20 countries, including Japan, the UK, Mexico and Colombia.
