Japan’s 3-2 victory over Brazil last October was a result that turned heads, and as the two sides meet again in the Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, that memory makes this rematch anything but a foregone conclusion. The Samurai Blue came from two goals down that day in a friendly, a performance rightly celebrated even though Brazil were missing several key players. Now, in a knockout fixture at Houston Stadium, the stakes are far higher.
For Japan, that October win represented only their second victory in 14 meetings with Brazil – and their first since a 2006 World Cup group-stage encounter that ended 4-1 to the five-time champions. Yet the manner of the comeback, coupled with their form since, has given manager Hajime Moriyasu’s side genuine belief that they can cause another upset. The match is already living up to the billing: as of the latest updates, the score is locked at 1-1 after Kaishu Sano put Japan ahead in the 29th minute and Casemiro equalised for Brazil in the second half. Vinícius Júnior struck the post for the Seleção, underscoring the fine margins at play.
No foregone conclusion
Brazil topped Group C unbeaten, drawing with Morocco and beating Haiti 3-0 and Scotland 3-0, scoring six goals and conceding just one. Japan finished second in Group F, also without a defeat, drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands and 1-1 with Sweden, and thrashing Tunisia 4-0. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Brazil have a 58.3% probability of winning in regulation time, with Japan given just 18.1%. But the data also reveals why this tie is far from settled.
Japan have been the tournament’s most clinical side, converting 26% of their chances. They have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches across all competitions. Brazil, meanwhile, have won seven of their last eight games by a two-goal margin and boast a dominant historical record, winning 11 of 14 meetings with Japan. Yet that record includes only one loss – the October friendly – and their sole World Cup encounter, in 2006, is a distant memory.
Injuries and squad changes add further uncertainty. Brazil manager Carlo Ancelotti has included Neymar despite recent injury concerns and after the forward was omitted from March friendlies. Neymar has scored nine goals against Japan – his highest tally against any single nation – but his fitness remains a talking point. Japan, meanwhile, are without the injured Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino. Captain Wataru Endo withdrew through injury and was replaced by Shuto Machino, with Ko Itakura taking the armband. Yuto Nagatomo is set to become the first Asian player to feature in five World Cups, a milestone that underscores the experience in Moriyasu’s squad.
Japan’s historical struggles in knockout matches are well documented: they have never won a knockout stage game at a World Cup. Against CONMEBOL opposition, they have won just one of five meetings (D1 L3). Yet their recent form, combined with the psychological boost from October’s victory, means they cannot be dismissed. Brazil, despite being the most successful side in World Cup history with five titles, have not won the tournament in 24 years – a drought that adds pressure to every knockout tie.
How to follow the action
The match is being played at Houston Stadium in Texas, with a 12:00 local time kick-off (17:00 GMT). The game is currently in progress with the score tied at 1-1. Follow the action live with our dedicated match blog, featuring expert insight and analysis as the second half unfolds.
