Globalisation has hit a record high, defying deglobalisation fears, according to the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026. The world’s level of globalisation reached 25 per cent in 2025, matching the historic high set in 2022, and global goods trade grew faster last year than in any year since 2017 (excluding the pandemic rebound). International trade proved more resilient than anticipated, weathering tariff hikes, geopolitical friction and supply chain uncertainties as businesses adapted rather than withdrew from global markets.
Global Connectivity at a Record High
The data shows that cross-border flows of goods, capital, information and people remain remarkably robust despite heightened political rhetoric around trade retrenchment. Europe continues to be the world’s most globally connected region, maintaining a balance of deep intra-regional integration and an expansive global reach. Traded goods travelled an average of 5,010 kilometres in 2025, the longest distance on record, undercutting claims that trade is contracting into local clusters. The DHL report finds no evidence to support regionalisation as a dominant trend; instead, companies are prioritising resilience by seeking growth and stability in distant markets.
While US-China trade ties have weakened – falling to 2.0 per cent of world trade in early 2025, with the share of US imports directly from China declining from a peak of 22 per cent in 2017 to 9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025 – this has not led to a broader fragmentation into rival blocs. Bilateral goods trade between the two economies still totalled $414.7 billion in 2025, and a joint arrangement in October 2025 suspended certain tariff and non-tariff measures. Only 4 to 6 per cent of global flows have shifted away from geopolitical rivals over the last decade, and trade has moved more towards neutral countries than close allies, signalling a “de-risking” trend rather than wholesale “friend-shoring”. Nations such as India and Vietnam are emerging as neutral connectors: bilateral trade between India and Vietnam reached nearly $16.46 billion in 2025, with significant scope for further supply chain integration, and Vietnam is increasingly seen as an alternative “China plus one” manufacturing location.
UK’s Diverse International Ties Provide Economic Stability
The UK occupies a distinctive position in this landscape. Ranked ninth globally for connectedness, it leads the world in “flow breadth” – a measure of how widely a country’s international ties are spread across partners, sectors and types of flow. This diversity provides a robust foundation for economic stability, insulating British businesses from over-reliance on any single corridor. Even when specific trade routes face pressure, the breadth of the UK’s connections means it can pivot more nimbly than less diversified economies.
British businesses are not retreating but recalibrating. UK manufacturers are diversifying and strengthening trade with countries that pose less geopolitical risk or that benefit from new trade agreements, while still exploring opportunities beyond traditional markets. For the UK, maintaining efficient, high-speed logistics links to emerging hubs in Asia and the Middle East remains critical: these regions act as vital bridges in the global network. At the same time, Brexit-related challenges continue to affect trade operations, investment, labour markets and supply chains, with businesses demanding simplified customs and trade systems. The UK Global Tariff (UKGT), which came into effect on 1 January 2021, increased duty-free tariff lines, but the lingering frictions of leaving the EU underscore the importance of the diversified approach the DHL report highlights.
The outlook for UK enterprise, then, is one of agility. With global goods trade projected to expand at an average annual rate of 2.6 per cent through 2029 – consistent with the trends of the past decade – the challenge is not about predicting whether globalisation will continue, but about identifying where and how opportunities are evolving. The UK’s existing breadth offers a platform to explore new corridors, and the data suggests that global flows are often more stable than the political rhetoric surrounding them.
Technology’s Impact on Trade Resilience
A key driver of the resilience seen in 2025 has been the surge in AI-related infrastructure. The DHL report notes that AI-related products accounted for 42 per cent of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025, boosting demand for semiconductors, data transmission equipment and other components. The World Trade Organization estimates that AI could boost global trade by 34 to 37 per cent by 2040, by reducing trade costs through optimised logistics, streamlined compliance and enhanced communication. However, the WTO warns that the transformative potential of AI is not guaranteed for everyone, with impacts on jobs likely to vary by skill level.
Geopolitical conflicts have disrupted major trade routes – notably the Red Sea crisis, which hit Suez Canal transits and drove up transportation costs and delivery times. Yet trade patterns have proved more adaptable than anticipated. The UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 report forecasts global economic growth at 2.8 per cent this year, below the pre-pandemic average, noting that trade tensions, high debt and geopolitical crises could offset gains. Even so, the DHL report’s central finding stands: global connectivity is not reversing but maturing. The roads remain open, and for those who focus on the data rather than the noise, significant opportunities persist in a world that remains deeply, and increasingly, connected.
