The trade union representing probation staff in England and Wales has declared that it has no confidence in management at the Probation Service, warning that excessive workloads are leaving the public “at direct risk” from unsupervised ex-offenders. Napo’s executive has taken the step for the first time, and is threatening to launch industrial action within three months unless its members receive increased support and pay. The vote comes as ministers prepare to release and monitor tens of thousands more former prisoners this autumn under the biggest expansion of electronic tagging in British history.
Union warns of burnout and hidden workloads
Napo’s executive has passed a motion stating that persistently high vacancy and staff sickness rates, combined with the removal of a tool that measures workloads, means “the current position is untenable and cannot continue”. The union accuses HM Prison and Probation Service of a “reckless disregard” for staff welfare, professional integrity and community safety. Tania Bassett, a Napo national official, said probation officers were unable to cope with the growing number of ex-offenders they were being asked to supervise, and that many more people were ending up on the street. “Excessive workloads and staff burnout poses a direct risk to the public with staff being unable to effectively manage the risk of their clients in the community,” she said. “Added to this is the shortage of accommodation, which will result in more people being homeless and therefore more likely to reoffend.”
At the heart of the dispute is a disagreement over the Workload Measurement Tool (WMT), which records the tasks assigned to each probation officer. Napo says managers are trying to get rid of it, a move that would hide the magnitude of the tasks staff are expected to perform. “The loss of a workload measurement tool will leave staff, including managers, unable to see their workloads and therefore unable to evidence that they are overworked,” Bassett said. HMPPS has claimed the WMT under-reports workloads, but the union says it has not communicated this to employees. Practitioner access to the tool has been extended until September 2026 only because of union pressure.
Negotiations on a 12% pay increase for 2025 have reached deadlock. Napo is now preparing to ballot its members for strike action, with a postal vote scheduled for 25 July and results expected on 22 August. The threat of industrial action adds to the pressure on a criminal justice system already struggling to cope.
Performance in decline and staff numbers falling short
The Probation Service’s performance has deteriorated since it was returned to public control in June 2021. In 2024-25, HM Prison and Probation Service met only 26% of its performance targets for timeliness of appointments and delivery of services – a sharp drop from 50% in 2021-22, according to the National Audit Office. The Ministry of Justice said that between 2023 and 2025, 31% of target probation appointments did not take place. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate for probation officers has risen from 14% in September 2021 to 21% in March 2025. HMPPS has underestimated the number of staff required for sentence management by approximately 34% – around 5,400 people – meaning the service is operating with roughly half the necessary workforce in that area. As of March 2025, there was a shortfall of 1,479 qualified probation officers, with only 79% of target staffing levels met.
Staff are working at 126% of capacity in some areas, leading to chronic burnout. In the past year, 103,000 working days were lost due to mental illness within the Probation Service. Last year, an official watchdog – the Public Accounts Committee – warned that longstanding staff shortages had left probation officers dealing with “excessive and unmanageable workloads”. The risk to the public is underscored by figures showing that in 2024, probation practitioners adequately assessed risk of harm in only 28% of cases, down from 60% in 2018-19.
The link between homelessness and reoffending
The union’s fears about homelessness are borne out by fresh data. Two-thirds of people released from prison into homelessness reoffend within a year. Adult offenders who are rough sleeping upon release have the highest reoffending rate, at 77.5%. The proven reoffending rate for those homeless or rough sleeping on release is more than double that of those in settled accommodation – 76.0% compared to 34.4% for the period January to March 2024. Approximately 1,070 people leave prison into homelessness each month, a 40% increase on the previous year. This contributes to the estimated £23.6 billion annual cost of reoffending.
Government plans: tagging, recruitment and technology
Despite these pressures, ministers are pushing ahead with a major expansion of electronic monitoring. From September, up to 40,000 former offenders will be tagged and overseen by probation officers – a 40% increase from the current 28,000 on tags. The Ministry of Justice has committed £100 million for the tagging expansion by the end of this parliament and £5 million for a pilot of “proximity monitoring technology” for domestic abusers and stalkers. The government says this will allow for tougher supervision of high-risk offenders and enable overworked staff to focus on more impactful tasks.
The MoJ has also announced it will recruit 1,300 extra probation officers in the next year as part of a £700 million investment by 2029. That includes an additional 1,300 trainee probation officers across 2026-27, on top of the 2,300 pledged since 2024. Starting salaries for probation roles are £26,475. The department has launched recruitment campaigns that emphasise the opportunity to make a difference rather than focusing solely on salary.
The government’s “Our Future Probation Service” programme aims to reduce workloads by 25% through digital reforms and revised supervision models. The National Audit Office has described the plan as “bold” but “high-risk”. The government is also investing £8 million in new technology to reduce administrative tasks, which it says will save 250,000 working days annually.
Ministers acknowledge strain but express confidence in leadership
Prisons Minister James Timpson told MPs last week that the Probation Service was under severe pressure, disclosing that staff were each managing an average of 32 ex-offenders. “It’s running too hot … we inherited a system that was broken, and we’re putting it all back together again. It’s going to take time,” he told the justice select committee. A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “We remain committed to working closely with trade unions to ensure our staff continue to get the support they need to cut crime and protect the public. We have full confidence in Probation Service leadership to deliver the necessary changes and improvements.”
The threat of industrial action, the union’s no-confidence vote and the growing evidence of a probation system stretched beyond its limits mean the coming months will be critical for both public safety and the welfare of the officers tasked with protecting it.
