The World Cup could inject £7.6bn into the UK economy, a boost that hospitality businesses are primed to capture — but the tournament’s late-night kick-offs and the hybrid working revolution are set to create an unprecedented conflict between football fandom and workplace productivity.
Economic boost
Analysis by money.co.uk suggests the wider economy will benefit from a net gain of £7.6bn between May and July as football fans flock to pubs, travel across the country to watch games and spend more on food, drink and entertainment. The uplift arrives at a fragile moment for the economy: official figures show the UK contracted by 0.1% in April, while rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East continue to squeeze household finances and business confidence.
Food and beverage companies are forecast to enjoy a £4.2bn revenue boost during the three-month period, a 9.3% increase compared with a typical summer. Accommodation providers are expected to see an even larger proportional jump, with spending rising by 25.2% and generating an additional £3.5bn in revenue. Rail and transport operators could benefit from a further £1.8bn uplift as fans travel to screenings, pubs and social events. Sports and recreation businesses are forecast to gain £3.1bn, while employment services and creative arts sectors are also expected to benefit from increased activity surrounding the tournament.
Convenience stores may also see a surge in last-minute shopping trips for snacks and drinks during late evening kick-offs, with potential additional sales of as much as £400m across the tournament, according to industry research.
Yet not every industry will emerge as a winner. Retail and wholesale businesses are forecast to suffer a £6.3bn decline in revenue as consumers shift spending towards experiences, food and drink. Broadcast and film businesses are expected to lose around £650m as audiences focus on football coverage. Retailers also face operational hurdles: stock shortages affected 71% of stores during previous tournaments, with stock failures costing them over £100,000 on average, while shoplifting incidents rose significantly on non-winning match days during past qualifiers — a trend expected to intensify during the World Cup.
Productivity costs
Separate research paints a stark picture for employers. A survey by brewing company Allsopp’s found that one in five Britons intends to pull a “sickie” after at least one World Cup match, equating to almost 6.9 million workers and an estimated £2.4bn hit to economic output. If England progress deep into the tournament, the cost could rise dramatically: repeated absences following England matches could cost as much as £7.3bn during the group stages and up to £16.9bn if the Three Lions reach the final.
The problem is compounded by the prevalence of remote working. More than a third of respondents said they planned to work from home rather than take annual leave, while separate research from VoucherCodes found 61% of fans would work remotely if it allowed them to watch matches. The discount provider estimated that post-match absences and reduced productivity could wipe out 2.5 million working days and cost the economy as much as £875m.
Remote working blurs the line between personal and professional time, making it harder for managers to monitor whether staff are genuinely working or distracted by the football. Nearly half of workers aged between 25 and 34 admitted they would call in sick because of a hangover after a late-night match, according to the survey. The tournament’s timing — hosted across North America (USA, Canada and Mexico) from June 11 to July 19 — means many matches will kick off late in the evening UK time, increasing the likelihood of tired workers arriving late or missing work altogether. Over one million London workers could call in sick, potentially costing the capital’s economy at least £587m.
Pub sector gains
For pubs and bars, those late-night kick-offs are expected to translate into a bumper summer. Government licensing rules will allow many pubs to remain open into the early hours during England and Scotland matches, creating what industry leaders hope will be one of the most profitable periods in recent years. The UK government has proposed relaxing licensing hours for pubs and bars in England and Wales, potentially allowing them to stay open until 1am or 2am for late-night Home Nation matches during the knockout stages — though these relaxations are conditional on teams reaching the semi-finals or final, and group stage matches are not covered by extended hours, requiring a Temporary Event Notice (TEN) instead.
The British Beer and Pub Association estimates that if England reach the final, an additional 55 million pints could be sold during the tournament, equivalent to around 1,240 extra pints for every pub in the country. Research from Opinium suggests football fans could spend an additional £600m in pubs during the World Cup alone, with younger consumers driving much of the increase. Nearly three in five Gen Z adults say they expect to watch matches in pubs, compared with less than a third of the population overall. Six in 10 also plan to visit pubs multiple times a month over the summer.
Jamie Allsopp, re-founder of Allsopp’s Brewery, said the tournament would provide a much-needed lifeline for venues struggling with rising costs. “While people pulling sickies to watch the World Cup and hungover staff working from home might not be great news for employers, the drive towards pubs has been sorely needed for the hospitality sector,” he said. “This is going to be one of the biggest periods ever for pubs, and it comes at a crucial time when VAT has been choking the industry.” Calls for a cut to beer duty have also been made as a further measure to support struggling pubs.
The figures underline a familiar economic reality of major sporting events. While football tournaments can generate billions in consumer spending and provide a significant boost to sectors such as hospitality, travel and leisure, they often do so by diverting spending from elsewhere and disrupting normal working patterns. As England fans dare to dream of another deep run in the competition, Britain’s pubs could be celebrating long before the final whistle. The country’s bosses, however, may be watching the fixture list with considerably less enthusiasm.
