Donald Trump cast as unlikely hero in upbeat climate story while dark counterpart unfolds

A slow-burning disaster

The extreme heatwave blanketing Europe has killed more than 1,300 people, according to the World Health Organization – a tally almost certain to be a dramatic understatement. In the summer of 2022, the final estimate of heat-related deaths on the continent exceeded 60,000. The past ten days have been significantly hotter. Scientists from the World Weather Attribution consortium found that nearly half of Europe’s 850 largest cities have endured their worst heat stress in recorded history, with temperatures consistently 5 °C to 12 °C above seasonal averages. Daytime temperatures over the past week would have been impossible during the 1976 European heatwave and were ten times less likely during the scorching summer of 2003 – a direct consequence of the underlying increase in global temperatures driven by rising greenhouse gases.

The destruction is less abrupt and less visible than the twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela, where the confirmed death toll has climbed past 1,900 and could reach 10,000. But the number of lives lost to the heat may be greater. The heatwave has ruptured sections of Germany’s Autobahn, forcing lane closures; buckled railway tracks; degraded power lines; and crippled medical equipment. In France, 17 of 18 inland nuclear reactors were forced to curb capacity because river temperatures were too high for effective cooling without harming aquatic life. Older train carriages in France and Belgium, whose air‑conditioning systems shut down in extreme heat, were taken out of service. Overhead power lines sagged, electronic signalling equipment failed, and the UK rail operator advised against non‑essential travel. In Germany, 26 people drowned while trying to cool off in rivers and lakes, and care homes were evacuated because indoor temperatures became dangerous.

The horror extends beyond Europe. Australia is on course for its warmest winter on record, with average daily temperatures 1.53 °C above the long‑term mean; the eastern region was 2.03 °C above average, and the ski season – supposed to be in full swing – is relying almost entirely on artificial snow. The recently declared El Niño weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean, the fifth‑most powerful on record, is expected to accelerate such extremes. It has already caused severe flooding in East Africa, killing at least 479 people, and drought across southern and eastern Africa that has affected more than 61 million people.

An unexpected catalyst for change

Running alongside this slow‑burning horror is a feelgood story with an accidental hero: Donald Trump. His administration’s inept military action against Iran alongside Israel, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – through which about 20 % of the world’s oil and gas supply passes – has triggered fresh thinking about how countries can break free from the global fossil‑fuel trade. In the short term, some decisions have bolstered dirty fuels, but attention is now firmly on ramping up clean energy and electrification in the name of energy security and lower costs.

The shift was already under way. Last year, for the first time, renewable energy – solar, wind and hydro – overtook coal‑fired power as the leading source of electricity, providing a third of the global total. Adding nuclear power (zero‑emissions but not renewable) pushed non‑fossil generation to 42 %.

Solar and battery: a revolution in cost and scale

Solar energy is expanding at an astonishing pace. It grew 30 % in 2025 – the single largest annual increase of any electricity source in history. Battery storage, essential for smoothing variable solar and wind output, grew 66 % from a lower base. The reasons are straightforward: solar is cheap, increasingly consumer‑friendly, and requires no fuel that has to be shipped from elsewhere. In a recent speech, United Nations Secretary‑General António Guterres noted that the cost of solar panels has fallen by 90 % over the past 15 years, batteries by 95 %, and wind energy by 70 %. He described renewables as “the cheapest, fastest and most scalable source of new electricity in most of the world” and argued they offer a “clean way out” of the energy crisis.

That logic is playing out across the globe. In Pakistan, one of the world’s top 20 emitting nations, solar capacity has increased more than tenfold in four years as gas‑fired power became unreliable and grid electricity became wildly expensive. Solar now provides more than a quarter of the country’s electricity, prompting the government to cancel liquefied natural gas imports scheduled for this financial year. In the European Union, solar and wind supplied about 30 % of electricity in 2025, up from 19 % in 2021. The think‑tank Ember reports that solar in the EU has recorded annual growth of roughly 20 % for four consecutive years; in June 2025 solar briefly became the EU’s largest single source of electricity. Renewables now account for 48 % of total generation, while fossil fuels have fallen to 29 %.

Even in the United States, where the Trump administration and Republicans have actively undermined renewable energy, the low cost of solar and batteries is winning. The pair provided 91 % of new generation capacity in the first quarter of 2025, and Ember reported that May was the first month solar generated more electricity in the US than coal. China, which uses more electricity than the US, Europe and India combined, is adding far more renewable capacity than any other country. Twenty years ago coal supplied about 80 % of its power; that share has now fallen to roughly 50 %, though new coal plants continue to be built – many of them are left idle as often as they are running. China also leads the world in manufacturing and buying electric vehicles: two‑thirds of cars and at least a quarter of heavy vehicles sold in China this year are expected to be EVs. Globally, the EV share is likely to reach 27 %, up from 9 % five years ago, according to BloombergNEF. China’s heavy‑duty electric truck sales rose 134 % between 2023 and 2024.

In India, the Delhi government has announced a ban on new licence plates for fossil‑fuelled small trucks and three‑wheelers from next year, and for scooters and motorbikes two years after that – only electric models will be allowed, with a target of 30 % of the city’s fleet electric by 2030. In Africa, Ethiopia became the first country to ban imports of new fossil‑fuel cars in 2024, slashing tariffs on EVs at the same time. Electric vehicles now represent nearly 6 % of Ethiopia’s total fleet, exceeding the global average of 4 %, a transition supported by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which doubled the country’s electricity supply.

The path to electrification – and the fight ahead

These developments underline why “electrification” has become a buzzword in climate policy. Electricity, using existing technology, can already meet about 75 % of the world’s energy needs. It is more efficient and far healthier than burning fuel, and it will increasingly come from clean sources simply because they are the cheapest option. The concept is at the heart of plans for this year’s UN climate summit and is the focus of a major campaign – Electrify Now – backed by governments, businesses, researchers and campaigners.

Yet none of this changes the scale of the task. Global emissions have still not begun to fall. Much of the new clean energy is meeting expanding demand rather than replacing coal, gas or oil. Fossil‑fuel interests and their supporters continue to fight for the old model: in 2022 the US oil and gas sector spent roughly $124 million on federal lobbying; the American Petroleum Institute has opposed clean‑energy policies. Over the past four years, more than 5,000 fossil‑fuel lobbyists have been granted access to UN climate summits – 636 attended COP27 alone – leading to accusations of corporate capture. Behind the scenes, major companies market themselves as part of the solution while continuing to undermine climate policy. The feelgood story has a formidable villain, but the speed and scale of the solar and battery revolution offer a plausible basis for qualified optimism.