The turquoise banners are impossible to miss. They line the roads connecting the towns and villages of Makerfield, each one declaring: “Makerfield needs Reform.” This was once the coal-mining heart of Wigan, a constituency that had returned a Labour MP continuously since the 1900s, but Nigel Farage’s party has gained a serious foothold. Were it not for the candidate Labour has thrown into the ring, this parliamentary seat would almost certainly fall to Reform.
Reform’s rise and the voters who back it
Robert Kenyon, the Reform candidate, is a local plumber and councillor for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North on Wigan Council. He finished second here in the 2024 general election. His online history has drawn scrutiny: past posts in which he said “I’m sexist, sorry but I am”, suggested women had abortions so they could “shag anyone they want”, described gay people as “poofs”, and promoted COVID-19 conspiracies. Yet voters in Makerfield do not appear to be put off. “That’s his opinion, we’ve all got opinions,” said Stephanie Doohan, a former railway worker and trade unionist who flies a Reform flag from a pole outside her house. “I can disagree with him, but it’s his policies I’m looking at.”
The most striking feature of Reform’s appeal here is that it persists even among voters who have suffered directly from flooding – the very issue that Reform’s policies, which include scrapping net zero and ending all renewable energy subsidies, would fail to address. Stefan Bilski, a roofer in Abram, has seen his house seriously flood twice, last year and in 2015. “I don’t think Labour have done enough [about flooding],” he said, explaining he is “probably” voting Reform. He is also swayed by what he sees as Labour’s failure to stop “all the illegal migrants coming in”. His grandfather, he noted, was a migrant who “came over in the war and worked down Bolton colliery – he didn’t come asking for benefits.”
A pensioner on Bickershaw Lane, who asked not to be named, was flooded twice and spent eight months out of her home. Her property’s value has plummeted. She is leaning towards Reform because Labour has “taken it for granted” for too long. She does not link the flooding to climate change: “This particular thing is not climate change, this is flooding. There are so many new properties being built in this area.” Reform’s national stance – the party currently leads in voting intention polls across the UK, while Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are deeply negative – reinforces the local mood. The national debate over net zero, which Reform frames as harming jobs and industries, resonates here even though deindustrialisation in areas like Makerfield predates climate targets.
Voter issues: flooding, waste, transport and the high street
The issues driving Makerfield’s electorate are largely environmental, but they are framed as failures of Labour governance rather than arguments for climate action. On New Year’s Day 2025, flooding hit several parts of the constituency, forcing residents out of their homes for months. In Bickershaw, a 25,000-tonne illegal waste dump has blighted the area, causing environmental hazards and health concerns. The Duchy of Lancaster, owned by King Charles III, is among the landowners, and its stance on cleanup responsibility has drawn criticism; the Environment Agency has taken action, including a court order to restrict access to a related site.
Public transport is another grievance. With no Metrolink tram service, reaching Manchester city centre can take an hour by train and bus. Meanwhile, the decline of local high streets is visible. In Hindley, former railway worker Eilieen Orrell, who plans to vote for Restore Britain, recalled: “When I was growing up, there were shoe shops, a Woolworths, a hardware shop – everything you could find was on the high street. Now, there’s nothing,” she said, gesturing towards a parade of vape shops and barbers. The cost of living is a constant backdrop: the median weekly wage in the constituency is £550.80, below the UK average, though slightly above the North West figure. The average household income is £38,810, and 23,700 homes have an energy performance certificate rating below C – a sign of the need for expensive home improvements.
Immigration, too, is a potent driver. Bilski’s comments reflect a wider sentiment that Labour has lost control. An estimated 65% of Makerfield voters chose Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and the constituency is 97% white. Many voters contrast historical migration patterns with current arrivals.
Labour’s candidate: Andy Burnham’s local pull
The main barrier to a Reform victory is Andy Burnham. Labour’s candidate, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, was formerly the MP for neighbouring Leigh. His record as mayor includes the creation of the Bee Network – an integrated public transport system that brought buses back under public control – as well as work on ending rough sleeping and making the region greener. His political philosophy, dubbed “Manchesterism”, emphasises devolution, increased public infrastructure spending, and public ownership of key services. He has been critical of the government’s handling of the pandemic, earning the nickname “King of the North”.
A Survation poll from 18–22 May put Burnham on 43% to Kenyon’s 40%, a narrow three-point lead, though Reform UK leads on generic Westminster voting intention by eleven points within the constituency. Betting odds from William Hill on 28 May gave Labour a 71% implied chance of winning. Voters like Elizabeth Whitehurst, who voted Green at the recent local elections, said she would back Burnham: “It will be Andy. It petrifies me to think Reform might win, or Restore, as they have no interest in Green issues.” Her house in Abram was flooded, forcing the family to live upstairs for months. “There was no help, there was nothing,” she said.
Michelle Hogan, head of supply chain at a fruit juice manufacturer, said: “I wouldn’t be voting for Labour if it wasn’t for Andy Burnham. I think Labour have lost their way. I don’t think Keir Starmer represents working-class people.” She was “overjoyed” when she heard Burnham was standing, and described the resignation of the sitting MP Josh Simons as “really selfless”. Simons stepped down after an investigation into allegations concerning his former think tank, Labour Together, paving the way for Burnham’s return to parliament. “I think a lot of people like myself think that this is the last chance,” Hogan added.
Sue Houghton, who is “not normally a Labour voter at all”, is backing Burnham because she hopes he will challenge Starmer. “He is not a strong enough leader,” she said. “He’s not got the public behind him, I don’t think, normal people like us.” Her husband, Paul Houghton, added: “If it was a normal election, I would normally vote for Reform, but I’m going to vote for Labour this time, and I’ve not voted for Labour in years. I think he’s doing a good job for Manchester, he’s done a cracking job as mayor, and I think he’ll make a good prime minister.”
Other parties: Restore Britain and the Greens
The most immediate threat to Reform’s chances comes not from Labour but from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. Survation put it in third place on 7% of the vote. Just three months ago, in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the party was barely mentioned; in Makerfield, its name comes up regularly. The former Labour club in Bryn – now the Bryn community club – serves as Restore Britain’s campaign headquarters. On a weekday afternoon, about 24 volunteers gathered there to head out on the trail. Among them was Tracey Bailey, a nurse and health visitor: “I’m here to save our country and save our children. I’m a mother of three, and I don’t like the state of the nation.”
In Hindley, a woman named Zoe said she had lost faith in both Labour and Reform. “I don’t trust them,” she said of Farage’s party, adding that Restore Britain would “get a move on”. Eilieen Orrell, a former railway worker and trade unionist who voted Labour in 2024, has spent the past three years following Rupert Lowe. “I just like the fact that he brings up other things apart from migrants,” she said. The party’s presence could act as a spoiler for Reform, potentially drawing votes away from Kenyon.
The Green Party candidate, Sarah Wakefield, is a Manchester city councillor and charity director with a background in sustainable food retail. Her campaign message is “don’t vote in anger, vote in hope.” She defended the party’s decision to stand, saying: “The Green Party did not call this by-election, Labour chose to call this by-election, Andy Burnham has chosen to stand in this by-election, and it’s his job to make the case for why he should be the representative of these people. That’s not my job – my job is to tell people why they should vote for Green policies.” However, the party is committing far fewer resources than it did in Gorton and Denton, where it won. “It’s a different area and it’s a different campaign,” Wakefield said. Some voters worry the Greens could split the Labour vote – Michelle Hogan, who would have voted Green without Burnham, described that as a concern.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are also standing candidates, but current polling puts them far behind – the Survation survey gave the Lib Dems 4%, the Greens 3%, and the Conservatives 2%.
Back in Hindley, Paul Houghton’s words captured the peculiar dynamic of the contest. A man who has not voted Labour in years, he will cast his ballot for Andy Burnham, a candidate he believes could become prime minister. The Reform banners still flutter along the roads, but in the one piece of ground that matters most on polling day, the battle may be decided by voters like him – the former Reform supporters handing Labour one last chance.
