Cabinet members are prepared to tell Sir Keir Starmer that his “time is up” and that he should begin an orderly transition of power, according to ministers who have spoken to The Independent. Several senior figures in the prime minister’s top team are expected to deliver the message directly in meetings scheduled for this afternoon, as the fallout from Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election intensifies the internal challenge to his leadership.
Cabinet ultimatum and the push for a successor
Heidi Alexander, the Secretary of State for Transport, is understood to have been the first cabinet minister to tell Sir Keir to go. She is now joined by colleagues including Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary; Ed Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero; and Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary — all of whom are said to be preparing to repeat earlier demands that he step aside. The ministers are urging Starmer to hand the keys to Number 10 to the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, who is positioned as a key contender. Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary, has also publicly declared his intention to run for the leadership, insisting that Sir Keir will not lead the party into the next general election.
The push for a transition comes as Labour prepares for a formal leadership contest. Under party rules, a challenge can be triggered if the leader resigns or if a challenger secures nominations from at least 20 per cent of Labour MPs — currently 81 MPs. Nominees must be sitting MPs, a requirement that would have ruled out Burnham until his victory in Makerfield. If a contest is triggered, the incumbent leader automatically appears on the ballot.
Burnham’s Makerfield landslide: a platform for leadership
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with a majority of 9,231 votes, securing 54.8 per cent of the vote against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, who took 34.5 per cent. Turnout was 58.7 per cent. Labour’s vote share increased by 9.61 percentage points compared with the 2024 general election. The result is the third successive parliamentary by-election — following Caerphilly for the Welsh Parliament in October 2025 and Gorton and Denton in February 2026 — in which Reform UK has finished second.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, to return to the Commons. Makerfield is a historically safe Labour seat but one in which Reform UK had won all eight council wards in the May 2026 local elections, making Burnham’s victory particularly notable against a backdrop of strong national polling for Nigel Farage’s party.
In his victory rally, Burnham said: “The word Makerfield in the future must be known as a byword for the change that came to British politics. This is the moment.” He described Labour’s win as a “final chance to change” and warned there would be no second chance. “Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.” Addressing questions about his own ambitions, he insisted the seat would never be a stepping stone but rather a “touchstone” — applying a “Makerfield test at the heart of British politics” to ensure places Westminster has neglected get fairness.
Burnham’s return to Parliament means he must step down as Mayor of Greater Manchester, triggering a mayoral by-election. Labour has published a candidate selection timetable for that contest, set for 30 July, which the party expects to be a two-horse race between Labour and Reform. A Labour source said: “Labour in power in Greater Manchester has seen real improvements for people’s everyday lives. From buses back in public control with capped fares, to thousands more homes and additional infrastructure built – all of this progress could be put at risk with Reform. The Greens can’t win this race. It’s time to pass the torch from Andy Burnham, who has delivered for the area, to the next transformational Labour Mayor.”
Starmer’s defiance and the battle for the party
Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to fight any leadership challenge. His official spokesperson told journalists on Friday that the prime minister had been “crystal clear” that he would run if a contest were triggered. Asked whether there is a vacancy for the prime minister’s job, the spokesperson replied: “No, I think the prime minister has been very clear this morning. There’s more to do.” He added that the civil service continues to work on the “delivery business of government” and that no preparations for a change at the top are under way.
In a lunchtime call with Labour staffers, Sir Keir called on the party to “pull together” in taking the fight to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and warned against “turning on each other”. He said: “The one thing we’ve got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement. That has never worked. That’s what the last government did. We need to learn that lesson.”
Despite the public defiance, Sir Keir is understood to have amassed a war chest to fund his campaign to fight any leadership challenge, with the backing of a group of private donors. Fundraising has ramped up in the last two days, with total pledges running into six figures, according to sources.
Broader political pressures and public opinion
YouGov snap polling released after the by-election indicates a divided public. Forty-four per cent of Britons say Burnham should challenge for the leadership, while only 19 per cent say he should not. If a contest is triggered, 38 per cent think Starmer should stand down and not take part, but 36 per cent think the prime minister should run himself. Twenty-three per cent of Britons believe Burnham would make a better prime minister than Starmer, while 32 per cent anticipate that a Burnham premiership would represent a change from Starmer; 43 per cent do not think there would be much difference.
The by-election campaign was also marred by controversy when a Reform UK councillor, Lilian Rogers, who sits on Wigan Council in Greater Manchester, was pictured posing with a resident’s homemade campaign poster that read: “I would rather vote for Jimmy Savile than Labour.” Rogers apologised after facing heavy backlash. Savile, a former presenter and DJ, was found to be one of the UK’s most prolific sex offenders after his death in 2011.
The coming hours and days will determine whether the internal pressure on Sir Keir Starmer turns into a formal contest. Cabinet ministers are preparing to make their case directly, while the new Makerfield MP weighs whether to launch a challenge that could reshape the leadership of the Labour Party.
