Labour party members overwhelmingly favour Andy Burnham over Keir Starmer to lead the party into the next general election, according to a new YouGov poll that exposes the depth of grassroots discontent – even as a majority of members acknowledge the Prime Minister has done a good job in office.
Polling reveals member preferences for leadership
The survey, conducted by YouGov, puts Burnham ahead of Starmer by a ratio of 3 to 2 when members are asked to choose between the two. Broken down further, 47% of Labour members rank the Greater Manchester mayor as their top choice for leader, compared with 31% for Starmer. Burnham also enjoys a favourability rating of 55% among Labour voters and is the most popular Labour figure among the general public, holding a positive net favourability score of +9.
The findings underline a striking paradox at the heart of the party. While 66% of members say Starmer has done either a fairly good (50%) or very good (16%) job as Prime Minister, only 28% believe he should lead the party into the next general election. A significant majority – 61% – want him to stand down before that contest. In a direct question on electability, members said they thought Labour was likely to win the next election with Burnham as leader, but not with Starmer at the helm.
Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, records the highest combined favourability rating of any potential leadership candidate – but she is not the person members most want to see as leader. On the “very favourable” measure alone, Burnham tops the field, reflecting the distinction between personal popularity and perceived suitability for the top job. Rayner’s net favourability among the public stands at -29. She has said she is ready to “play her part” in any leadership contest.
Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who resigned from the cabinet after publicly declaring a lack of confidence in Starmer, has announced he will run for the leadership if a contest is triggered. He has criticised what he describes as a leadership culture that has stifled policy thinking and called Brexit a “catastrophic mistake”, arguing the UK should rejoin the EU. Despite strong support among Labour MPs, Streeting’s net favourability with the public is -18 (19% favourable, 37% unfavourable), and 61% of Labour members rate his chances of winning a leadership contest as unlikely. Streeting has acknowledged that a contest without Burnham would “lack legitimacy”.
Byelection and leadership challenge
The internal tensions erupted after Starmer issued a “put up or shut up” message to his critics at a cabinet meeting last week. Streeting responded by neither launching a leadership bid nor staying silent, instead resigning and going public with his lack of confidence. Days later, Burnham secured permission from Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand in the candidate selection process for the Makerfield by-election, a development that means a leadership challenge has not been averted – merely postponed.
The by-election, scheduled for 18 June, was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to provide a seat for Burnham. It is the first time in over 60 years that a by-election has been called specifically to accommodate a figure not currently in parliament. The constituency is now considered a Labour-Reform marginal, following strong Reform UK performances in recent local elections.
Reform UK has already launched online attack adverts against Burnham, depicting him as an opportunist and a carpetbagger. The adverts might have had more traction had Burnham stood in Norwich South, where the Labour MP Clive Lewis once casually suggested he might give up his seat. However, Burnham grew up in the Makerfield area, sent his children to school in the constituency, and lives just outside it. Benedict Pringle, who writes about political advertising, said the Reform ads are “not particularly strong”.
Burnham, who has yet to be officially confirmed as Labour’s candidate, released his own campaign video yesterday. In it he stresses his local links and addresses the accusation that the by-election is unnecessary and driven by personal ambition. He says he is standing because he wants to “change Labour” and win back lost voters, describing the contest as “the most consequential of our lives”. If elected to parliament, Burnham would be required to resign as mayor of Greater Manchester, triggering a mayoral by-election.
Meanwhile, a rescue deal for Thames Water is under threat because of a potential change in prime minister, according to government insiders.
Economic fallout and global pressures
The political drama unfolds against a worsening economic backdrop. Official figures show UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5% in the three months to March, up from 4.9% in the previous period, in the first snapshot of how companies are reacting to the impact of the Iran war. Wage growth has slowed, with regular pay (excluding bonuses) increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.6% – the slowest rate since October 2020. The number of payrolled employees dropped sharply in April, falling by 100,000, the biggest monthly decline since records began in 2014 (excluding the pandemic). Job vacancies have fallen to their lowest level in five years. Economic analysts attribute the downturn to the Iran war, which has caused market uncertainty and driven up inflation; the Bank of England expects unemployment to hit 5.1% by mid-2026 and to rise further.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February, is impacting global supplies of oil, natural gas and fertiliser, leading to a sharp rise in energy prices and contributing to a potential global food crisis. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, speaking at the Global Partnerships Conference today, is expected to warn that fertiliser shipments must resume within weeks to prevent crop failures and reliance on emergency aid. The World Food Programme estimates that up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity if the conflict persists beyond mid-year. Cooper has stated that Iran cannot “hold the global economy hostage”.
Government and parliamentary business
Starmer chairs cabinet this morning. Later, David Lammy – the deputy prime minister, justice secretary and lord chancellor – takes questions in the Commons. Lammy, who served as foreign secretary from July 2024 to September 2025, has been a vocal advocate for justice system reform, particularly on racial disparities.
In other business, the playwright James Graham and Guardian columnist Marina Hyde are among witnesses giving evidence to the Commons culture committee on BBC charter renewal. The transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, is expected to make a statement to MPs on HS2. MPs also resume the king’s speech debate, focusing on energy policy.
In the devolved administrations, Rhun ap Iorwerth, the new Welsh first minister following Plaid Cymru’s election win, will give a statement to the Senedd setting out his priorities: cutting waiting lists, helping families with the cost of living, unleashing the Welsh economy, raising school standards, tackling child poverty, and advocating for Wales in Westminster. He has pledged to work closely with the UK government while respecting Welsh democracy. In Scotland, MSPs meet to elect a first minister, with the SNP’s John Swinney due to be confirmed in the job.
Anne Longfield, chair of the grooming gangs inquiry, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee this afternoon. Birmingham city council, which is under no overall control, holds its first meeting since the elections and is due to appoint a leader.
