The drone strike on RAF Akrotiri just after sunset on 1 March did not cause casualties, but the impact resonated far beyond the perimeter of the British Sovereign Base. For Cyprus, the EU’s easternmost member, it was a stark and unprecedented moment: a hostile act directly on its soil, linked to the spiralling conflict between Iran and US-led forces following airstrikes days earlier. The immediate aftermath saw flight cancellations, raised travel warnings, and a sudden, anxious question hanging over the island’s economic lifeblood: its tourist season.
The British Foreign Office swiftly updated its guidance, stating terrorist attacks could not be ruled out. The US State Department went further, elevating its warning to Level 3, advising travellers to reconsider visits due to the threat of armed conflict. For a nation that welcomed a record 4.04 million visitors in 2024, generating an estimated €3.21 billion in revenue, the timing could hardly be worse. The unofficial start of the peak season, Catholic Easter, falls on 5 April. “Everything will depend on how long the war lasts,” Cyprus’s deputy tourism minister, Kostas Koumis, conceded last week.
In the resort of Ayia Napa, the tension between daily normality and distant war is palpable. The beaches are quiet but not empty; construction work continues on the seafront. Vassilis Georgiou, overseeing a new jet-ski ramp for his water sports business, feels the shift in sentiment. “That’s far from certain now,” he said of his hopes for a bumper year, citing reports from hoteliers of falling bookings. “People are thinking twice.”
This hesitation was felt at the ITB Berlin, the travel industry’s key trade fair. Fotos Kikillos of Ayia Napa’s town hall spoke of a “certain numbness” there, alongside cancellations. Yet on the ground, he and others are keen to project calm. “As you can see, life here is very safe. People are enjoying themselves. There’s no sense of fear,” he said. This resilience is rooted in harsh experience. Many Cypriots old enough to remember the 1974 Turkish invasion and the island’s division view the current anxieties with a weary perspective. “Bah! When you’ve seen the skies full of parachutes and bombs going off, then you get afraid,” said a shopkeeper named Evros. “This, today, is a picnic.”
The industry itself is attempting to strike a balance between vigilance and reassurance. Thanos Michaelides, president of the hoteliers’ association, stated the sector was monitoring developments but had seen no immediate panic, emphasizing Cyprus’s historical resilience. That resilience has been tested before: the tourism sector in the south recovered after the trauma of 1974, and has navigated subsequent regional crises, from the Gulf War to the pandemic and the loss of the Russian market.
Nevertheless, the nature of this crisis is new. The drone that struck Akrotiri, reported to have been launched by the Iran-backed Hezbollah from Lebanon, caused minor material damage—though some reports indicated it gouged a hangar housing U-2 spy planes. It placed Cyprus firmly in the “risk zone” of a regional war, a vulnerable position for an island whose economy depends on tourism for roughly 14% of its GDP.
Tourists on the ground express a mix of defiance and unease. Karin and Oliver Kiilaspa from Estonia arrived with their baby daughter on the very day of the Akrotiri strike. “We were a little worried… but we wanted to think positively,” said Karin, criticising the role of US leadership in the conflict. For Danish retiree Marianne Steglich, the decision was simple: “I wasn’t going to miss it because of what they [the US and Israel] are doing.”
Andri Christoforou, a manager at a fish tavern, observes that visitors have “got used” to the sight of conflict in the night skies over the eastern Mediterranean. She recalled diners on the terrace of Vassos restaurant watching the horizon during the Gaza crisis last summer. “Of course we’re worried. Everyone is talking about this war,” she said. “You have to be positive, otherwise it harms your health.”
Behind the scenes, the challenge is one of perception as much as immediate safety. Economists warn that prolonged instability can deter travellers sensitive to perceived risk, regardless of the actual situation on the island. Cyprus has worked to diversify its tourism, with Ayia Napa and neighbouring Protaras trying to extend the season and move beyond the summer party image. Yet its key markets—the UK, Israel, Poland, and Germany—are all watching events closely.
For now, the sirens at Akrotiri have fallen silent, but the uncertainty lingers like a haze on the horizon. The conflict has disrupted global air traffic, affecting flows to the island. The coming weeks, leading to the Easter threshold, will be critical. The story of Cyprus’s 2024 season is one of record-breaking success. The story of 2025 is yet to be written, waiting on events over a thousand miles away, yet feeling closer than ever before.
