Trump urges regional nations to sign Abraham Accords recognising Israel in any deal

Talks with Iran are “proceeding nicely,” but a deal is all or nothing, Donald Trump has declared, raising the prospect of a resumption of attacks on Tehran if the negotiations collapse. The US president, writing on his Truth Social platform, warned that the outcome will either be a “great deal for all” or “no deal at all,” an ultimatum that has sharpened the stakes in the diplomatic push to end the Middle East war.

Trump said he had spoken on Saturday to “numerous” mediating regional powers and insisted that the process should begin with the “immediate signing” of the Abraham Accords by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan — countries that have, to varying degrees, helped facilitate mediation between Washington and Tehran, with Pakistan taking a leading role. “It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted,” Trump wrote, “but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be.”

The Abraham Accords: A condition for peace

Trump’s demand that the six nations sign the accords as a prerequisite for any US-Iran deal underscores the centrality of the Abraham Accords to his vision of a reshaped Middle East. The accords, originally signed during Trump’s first term in 2020, saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain become the first Arab states to recognise Israel in a quarter-century, breaking a long-standing taboo. Morocco and Sudan subsequently joined, although the agreement was not ratified in Sudan because of internal instability caused by conflict and political turmoil. Kazakhstan declared it was joining last year, even though it had already established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992.

Trump touted the accords as a “financial, economic, and social boom” for the member states, noting that none of the current participants — the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan — had suggested leaving or even pausing their involvement “during this time of conflict and war.” Since signing, Israel and the UAE in particular have forged close economic and security ties, including defence cooperation and a free trade pact, although significant strains persist in the relationship.

The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, a heavyweight in the region, is a key objective. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously expressed a potential willingness to normalise relations with Israel, but Riyadh has made clear that recognition is conditional on the establishment of a Palestinian state — a position that could complicate Trump’s push for rapid accession. Trump, however, signalled that he would accept limited exceptions: “One or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted.” He added that, if Iran signs its own agreement with Washington, he would be “honoured” to have the Islamic Republic join the accords, envisioning a Middle East that is “united, powerful, and economically strong.” In a sweeping post, he declared: “By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords.”

The diplomatic landscape has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. According to analysts, the shock of the Iran war and its fallout has driven rivals in the region to throw their weight behind a peace deal, pushing the Trump administration to accept a tentative agreement despite furious opposition from Israel and its supporters in Washington. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, said the Gulf states were disillusioned with the US after watching Washington prioritise the defence of Israel over their own security interests, despite trillions of dollars of Gulf investment in the United States. “We’re probably seeing the final days of American empire in the Middle East,” Krieg said. “Across the Gulf, there is complete disillusionment with American influence and the ability of America to lead.” The provisional deal was agreed at the end of last week after Pakistani and Qatari officials travelled to Iran in a final push for an outline agreement, and in a call with Trump on Saturday, leaders from a group of eight Muslim-majority nations urged him to accept a deal that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Details of the emerging agreement have begun to emerge. According to reports citing a Middle East diplomatic source, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global trade that Iran has effectively shut since the US and Israel began their bombing campaign on 28 February — could reopen about 30 days after a peace deal is struck. Under the plan, Iran would clear mines from the waterway, ships from all countries would be able to navigate freely and Tehran would stop collecting transit fees. In exchange, US sanctions would be lifted and Iranian assets unfrozen in phases, and the existing ceasefire would be extended for 60 days to allow for talks on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran’s foreign ministry has said that a conclusion has been reached “on a large portion of the issues under discussion,” but denied that an agreement is imminent. The deal must be approved by Iran’s leadership, including the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, a process that may take time.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters in New Delhi that Washington would give diplomacy every chance to succeed before considering whether to deal with Iran in “another way.” He described a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.” In Doha, Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, have been meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, with discussions focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The governor of Iran’s central bank is also part of the delegation to discuss the release of frozen funds. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stressed that nuclear issues would only be negotiated once a framework accord is agreed first.

The apparent concessions from Washington have triggered alarm among Republican foreign policy hawks. Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Trump, warned that if a deal is struck because it is believed the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism, Iran will be perceived as a “dominant force requiring a diplomatic solution,” creating a “nightmare for Israel.” Senator Ted Cruz wrote on X that if the result is an Iranian regime “still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America'” receiving billions of dollars, able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and with effective control over the strait, “that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.” Trump hit back, dismissing critics as “Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal,” and contrasted the emerging agreement with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he withdrew from in 2018, calling it a “direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon.”

Meanwhile, the conflict on the ground continues. Lebanon’s public health ministry has reported that 3,185 people have been killed and 9,633 wounded by Israel since it renewed its offensive against Hezbollah on 2 March. The Israeli military has issued forced evacuation orders for residents of southern Lebanon’s Tyre city and surrounding areas, claiming it is responding to Hezbollah violations of the US-brokered ceasefire. Israel has continued to strike targets both north and south of the Litani River, while Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones into northern Israel. Iran is pushing for an end to the war on Lebanon as part of its negotiations with Washington. And in a sign of broader diplomatic attention, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa discussed by phone the need for a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Iran crisis.

World Cup visa row resolved

Amid the high-stakes diplomacy and ongoing violence, Iran’s participation in this summer’s World Cup in North America has been secured after a diplomatic stand-off over visas. Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said Fifa had promised that the country’s men’s football team would receive visas to play in the United States, despite the ongoing war. “The Fifa president promised us that all our players would receive visas. There is no reason why our players should not receive visas,” Donyamali told local news agency ISNA. He added that hosts are obliged to provide visas to all participating countries, including for players and backroom staff.

The Iranian squad had been based in Arizona for training but will now relocate to Tijuana, on the Mexican border with the United States, to avoid visa-related complications. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed on Monday that her government agreed to allow the team to stay in Mexico after the United States said it did not want the Iranian squad to remain in the country throughout the tournament, despite Iran playing all three of its group matches there. “We have no reason to deny them the possibility of staying in Mexico,” Sheinbaum said. The head of Iran’s football federation, Mehdi Taj, said the move would allow the squad to travel directly to Mexico on Iran Air flights and obtain multiple-entry US visas while based in Tijuana. The team’s participation had been in question since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, was unable to attend a UN Security Council meeting in New York due to issues related to a US visa, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.