Millwall head into the Championship play-off semi-finals as statistically the strongest travellers in the division, having collected 41 points on the road and lost only four of 23 away games. Yet for a club that has never played in the Premier League, their history in the second-tier play-offs is a stark counterweight: three appearances, three semi-final defeats. That record will be tested when they visit Hull City on Friday night for the first leg.
Millwall’s mixed play-off legacy
Millwall’s play-off story is one of two tiers. In League One they have reached the final in each of their last four appearances – 2008‑09, 2009‑10, 2015‑16 and 2016‑17. But in the second tier it has been a different story: they were beaten in the semi‑finals in 1990‑91, 1993‑94 and 2001‑02. This time they finished third in the Championship with 83 points, and history suggests that position carries weight. Since the division rebranded in 2004‑05, teams that finished third have reached the play‑off final 17 times and won promotion nine times – more than any other league position.
Millwall’s away form, including a 3‑1 victory at Hull in March, will give them confidence. That result was a reversal of the 3‑1 defeat they suffered at home to the Tigers earlier in the season. Overall, the clubs have met 22 times, with Hull winning nine, Millwall seven and six draws. Both sides favour a direct style: only Oxford United and Charlton Athletic played a higher proportion of long passes this season (21% each) than Millwall and Hull (19%). Femi Azeez has been Millwall’s most influential player, leading the club with 11 league goals and seven assists. The Opta supercomputer, which ran 10,000 simulations, makes Millwall the second favourites to win promotion (29.7% of simulations) and gives them a 61.6% chance of overcoming Hull in the semi‑finals.
Hull City’s remarkable overachievement
Hull City’s sixth‑place finish with 73 points is, statistically, the most unlikely story of the Championship season. They ended the campaign 19.9 points above their expected points total – the largest overperformance in the division. Put another way: if the season had been decided by the underlying quality of chances created and conceded, Hull would have finished 23rd, not sixth. Their actual points tally of 73 is the lowest any promoted team has carried into the play‑offs since Crystal Palace in 2012‑13, who had 72 points and went on to beat Watford in the final. Since the Championship rebrand, only two sixth‑placed teams have won the play‑off final: West Ham in 2004‑05 and Blackpool in 2009‑10. Hull will hope to become the third, having already won promotion via the Championship play‑offs on both previous occasions – in 2007‑08 and 2015‑16.
Oliver McBurnie has been the driving force behind Hull’s overachievement. The striker scored both goals in the 2‑1 final‑day win over Norwich that secured their play‑off place, taking his league tally to 17 – second only to Swansea’s Žan Vipotnik, who scored 23. McBurnie scored four goals in his last five games. Hull’s season took a turn when Rubén Sellés replaced Liam Rosenior midway through the 2024‑25 campaign, guiding the club out of the relegation zone and into the play‑off picture.
Southampton’s transformation under Tonda Eckert
Southampton’s season can be divided into two distinct eras. Before November they were fourth from bottom after 13 matches under Will Still, who was sacked. Since Tonda Eckert took charge, initially as interim manager and permanently from December, the Saints have collected more points than any other Championship side – 68 – and climbed to fourth with 80 points. Under the 32‑year‑old German, whose coaching career included assistant roles at Barnsley and Genoa and youth development at Köln, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, Southampton have been the division’s most potent attack, scoring 69 goals – 11 more than any other team – and converting 14.4% of their shots, the best conversion rate in the division.
One player who has flourished is 27‑year‑old forward Léo Scienza, who has been involved in 16 goals (six goals, ten assists) in 29 appearances under Eckert. Southampton are on a 19‑game unbeaten league run (14 wins, five draws), their longest such sequence since the 2023‑24 campaign in which they won the play‑off final. That run underlines the scale of the turnaround: they spent only 49 days inside the top six all season – fewer than relegated Leicester (59 days). Finishing fourth might be an encouraging omen, as that position has yielded promotion in three of the last four seasons, including for Southampton themselves two years ago. Yet there is a caveat: Eckert’s side won only one of their ten matches against the other top‑six teams, the worst record in that mini‑league. Opta’s simulations make Southampton the favourites, reaching the final in 58.8% of scenarios and winning it 32.9% of the time. They face Middlesbrough in the semi‑finals, with the two sides level on 80 points but separated by goal difference.
Middlesbrough’s lost leads and managerial upheaval
Middlesbrough’s season is defined by what might have been. They spent 217 days in the top two – the same as champions Coventry – and, before a draw with Bristol City on 14 March, had won all 20 league games in which they had taken the lead. But in their final nine matches they dropped 11 points from winning positions, allowing Ipswich to overtake them on the final day. That collapse happened under Kim Hellberg, who replaced Rob Edwards in November after Edwards left for Wolves, a club he had played for, after less than five months in charge. Middlesbrough paid around £250,000 to release Hellberg from his contract at Hammarby, where the 38‑year‑old Swede had recorded consecutive second‑place finishes.
Under Hellberg, Middlesbrough have played the most possession‑based football in the division, averaging 62.8% possession and 459 successful passes per game – 51 more than any other side. Southampton are second in both categories. Boro have also conceded the fewest goals among the four play‑off teams – 47 – but their inability to protect leads late in the season is a concern. Their play‑off record in the second tier has been poor: since winning promotion via the 1987‑88 play‑offs with a two‑leg victory over Chelsea, they have reached the second‑tier play‑offs four times without winning promotion. Opta rates Middlesbrough and Hull as outsiders, with Boro given a 22% chance of winning promotion across the 10,000 simulations.
The semi‑final first legs take place on 8 and 9 May, with the second legs on 11 and 12 May. The final at Wembley is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026.
