Kazakhstan’s vast mineral wealth offers a potential solution to Western critical mineral dependencies that have been exposed by China’s aggressive use of export controls and Russia’s stranglehold on uranium enrichment. The ninth-largest country on earth sits on one of the most extraordinary resource endowments anywhere – yet it still trades at a discount anchored in Cold War geography. That discount, analysts say, represents an opportunity for investors and governments alike to break a recurring pattern of inaction.
China’s chokehold on critical minerals
The scale of China’s dominance is stark. Beijing controls 60% of global rare-earth mining, 91% of refining and 94% of magnet production. In April 2025 it weaponised that position by imposing export restrictions on rare-earth elements. By May, shipments of rare-earth magnets to the United States had fallen 93% year on year. Ford idled its electric-vehicle plant in Chicago and German carmakers warned of production halts. China has since extended the same logic to tungsten, where it controls 79% of global supply and has imposed export curbs on a market already stretched by demand for defence driven by the Ukraine war and disruption in the Persian Gulf.
The benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate – the white crystalline powder that is the standard intermediate stage through which virtually all mined tungsten passes before being refined into metal, carbide cutting tools or missile-grade alloys – has risen 716% in a year. The price chart, observers note, looks almost vertical. Russia, meanwhile, controls 46% of global uranium-enrichment capacity, a choke point that Western utilities are only now starting to engineer around. The US Department of Energy is working to expand domestic enrichment capabilities, but the gap remains wide.
Kazakhstan’s resource bounty and diplomatic tightrope
Into this landscape steps Kazakhstan. The country produces 40% of the world’s uranium and 18% of the titanium used in global aerospace. It is a top-ten global producer of copper, gold, chromium, beryllium, niobium, tantalum and tungsten. It has recently begun developing what is reportedly the world’s largest manganese deposit and will shortly become the second-largest global producer of gallium, essential for semiconductors. Last year it announced a rare-earth discovery that could put it third globally in that category too. All of this before considering that only 16% of its territory available for exploration has been licensed.
The geopolitical story is as interesting as the resource one. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has executed a genuinely remarkable balancing act. Kazakhstan has observed Western sanctions against Russia without drawing Moscow’s ire. It has maintained strong ties with both Washington and Beijing at a moment when those two are economically decoupling. It joined Donald Trump’s Board of Peace – pledging financial contributions and the deployment of troops to an International Stabilization Force for Gaza – secured a G-20 invitation to Florida, hosted the expansion of the Central Asia Five to include Azerbaijan, and let China lead the recent mining investment league table, all simultaneously.
This “multi-vector” foreign policy is a deliberate middle-power strategy aimed at avoiding overdependence on any single nation. Relations with Russia remain pragmatic, with Kazakhstan adhering to the Eurasian Economic Union even as it faces tensions such as disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and the decision by Kazakh banks to refuse the Russian Mir payment system due to secondary sanctions risks. Moscow still views Kazakhstan as a key partner, with recent agreements elevating ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance. In contrast, the US tends to view Central Asia through a collective lens rather than granting individual importance – a nuance that gives Kazakhstan room to manoeuvre.
The transport picture has also shifted materially. The Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, the so-called Middle Corridor, has reduced transit times between Kazakhstan and Europe from 50 days in 2023 to 18 today, with a target of ten by 2030. Critically, this route has become the primary channel for Kazakh uranium reaching Western utilities, bypassing Russia. Infrastructure investment – including modernisation of berths at Aktau port and upgrades to railway sections – is driving cargo volume growth, and the corridor is gaining further importance due to instability in maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Investment risks and the new model of state partnership
There are real risks for investors. The Kazakh government is moving to mandate state-owned enterprise participation of at least 50% in new oil, gas and uranium projects, and similar rules are under discussion for the mining sector more broadly. A Canadian investor recently withdrew from a series of uranium licences, citing a regulatory change that would have handed Kazatomprom a 75% stake in any new venture. The $100 billion arbitration Kazakhstan’s government launched against the Kashagan and Karachaganak oil projects over claims of lost revenue is a reminder that the country has, in the past, rewritten the rules after the investment was made. A recent arbitration ruling favoured Kazakhstan in the Karachaganak dispute, with compensation estimated between $2 billion and $4 billion, signalling a more assertive stance by the government in renegotiating terms with international majors. Constitutional changes passed in March 2026 appear to strengthen the role of domestic law relative to international treaties.
The counterpoint is that newer investors, coming in with eyes open, are structuring around this reality rather than fighting it. One foreign investor quoted in Ocean Wall’s recent Kazakhstan research noted that participation by state-owned enterprises in joint ventures was an advantage in practice, with the state partner handling licensing and regulatory navigation while the investor focused on operations. The Cove Kaz Capital tungsten joint venture with Tau-Ken Samruk, financed by the US Export-Import Bank and Development Finance Corporation, is the model: US government finance backing the deal, Kazakh state equity alongside it and a Western mining company operating it. Cove Kaz Capital acquired a 70% stake in Severniy Katpar LLP, a joint venture developing what is described as the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten resource. The project aims to secure 15% of global tungsten output for the West, against a price backdrop that makes the economics extraordinary.
For investors seeking exposure, several listed vehicles offer entry points at different levels of risk. Kaspi.kz (Nasdaq: KSPI) is the most accessible, combining a payments super-app with a marketplace and banking operation in a country where digital adoption is accelerating rapidly. Halyk Bank (LSE: HSBK, GDR) offers exposure to domestic credit growth and rising household incomes. Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP, GDR) is the anchor of the uranium thesis, controlling 40% of global supply; the sulphuric acid constraint on in-situ recovery production is a genuine medium-term risk worth tracking, but the structural demand picture from reactor buildout globally is compelling – and the company reported a 17% increase in production in the third quarter of 2025, signalling a potential recovery even as analysts warn that global uranium demand may outstrip supply post-2030. KazMunaiGaz (Almaty: KMGZ) offers hydrocarbon exposure with a state backstop, and contract renegotiations with major oil companies over the coming years could prove a catalyst. East Star Resources (LSE: EST) is an early-stage exploration name focused on copper and gold, positioned to benefit as the government’s new geological mapping programme defines the resource base more clearly. Air Astana (LSE: AIRA) rounds out the picture as a play on Kazakhstan’s growing connectivity and its ambitions as a regional hub, having listed in London in 2024. The Cove Kaz Capital tungsten joint venture stands as a template for how Western capital, Kazakh state equity and operational expertise can combine to secure supply chains that the West urgently needs.
