Diana Choyleva, founder and chief economist at Enodo Economics, has argued that the single most influential force shaping the global economy over the next two decades will be China’s drive to financialise. Speaking on the MoneyWeek Talks podcast, she outlined how Beijing’s shift from a manufacturing-led growth model to one rooted in financial expansion is fundamentally altering markets, technology competition and the structure of international trade.
China’s financial drive
Choyleva’s analysis, grounded in more than 25 years of studying China’s economy and politics, describes financialisation as a deliberate policy tool that goes beyond mere capital circulation. China is moving away from a purely fiscal approach to economic growth and urban development, instead expanding its financial sector, building new financial centres and deploying novel financial instruments. Enodo Economics, the independent forecasting firm Choyleva founded in 2016, has highlighted that this process also serves political objectives – notably Beijing’s ambition to reconfigure the global financial order and challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Her 2025 book Petrodollar to Digital Yuan: China, the Gulf, and the 21st Century Path to De-Dollarization and her 2022 co-authored work China’s Quest for Financial Self-reliance – How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System both examine this strategy in depth.
AI and the breakdown of globalisation
The podcast discussion also touched on the artificial intelligence race between China and the West. According to Choyleva, the United States retains an edge in cutting-edge large language models, owing to its access to advanced semiconductor chips. China, however, is prioritising efficiency, adoption and the physical integration of AI into infrastructure. Chinese companies are developing world-class models with a focus on algorithmic efficiency and lower compute costs. Choyleva has characterised China’s approach as more practical and comprehensible, treating AI as a state-directed infrastructure project backed by subsidies and national computing programmes. Some analyses, she has noted, suggest that Beijing’s long-term strategy of diffusion and innovation around its limitations could ultimately allow it to win the race.
The breakdown of globalisation forms another pillar of Choyleva’s thinking. She argues that the global economy has struggled to internalise the benefits of globalisation effectively, with the 2008 financial crisis serving as a wake-up call that policymakers largely failed to understand. Events such as the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump are, in her view, key markers of the anti-globalisation shift. Enodo Economics has been a pioneer in analysing what Choyleva calls “The Great Decoupling” – the bifurcation of the global economy into distinct US and Chinese spheres of influence. Her research has also examined the implications of a potential conflict over Taiwan and, more recently, the impact of the Iran war on US-China relations, arguing that traditional single-discipline market analysis is failing investors in this complex geopolitical environment.
How China’s equity market is transforming
The transformation of China’s equity market received the most detailed treatment in Choyleva’s remarks. Historically, China’s stock market has underperformed global peers, weighed down by opaque governance, state intervention and a reliance on state-owned enterprises. Yet a significant shift is under way. Choyleva pointed to a growing industrial boom and an increasing willingness among investors to look beyond US tech stocks towards domestically oriented Chinese sectors. This change is being driven by several factors: policy reforms that favour quality growth over raw expansion, attractive valuations after years of pessimism, and the rising influence of artificial intelligence on corporate productivity and innovation.
Enodo Economics has tracked how these dynamics have already delivered tangible results. Despite persistent headwinds from the property sector crisis and ongoing trade tensions with the West, China’s stock market was the best-performing major market globally in 2024. Choyleva attributes this resurgence to a combination of improving fundamentals, government policy shifts that reward higher-quality companies, and a broader recalibration of investor sentiment. The extreme bearishness that characterised views on Chinese equities in 2022 and 2023, she argues, has started to give way to a more nuanced assessment. Investors are now paying closer attention to sectors that benefit from China’s domestic consumption, technological self-sufficiency and financial-sector deepening.
Underpinning this transformation is the very financialisation Choyleva identifies as the defining global force. As China develops deeper capital markets and introduces new financial tools for urban development and corporate financing, its equity market is becoming a more credible vehicle for both domestic savings and international capital. The rise of AI is accelerating this trend by reshaping productivity in sectors from manufacturing to services, creating new investment opportunities that are increasingly independent of the US-dominated tech narrative. Choyleva’s broader work – including her book The American Phoenix – and Why China and Europe Will Struggle After the Coming Slump (2011) and The Bill from the China Shop – How Asia’s Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy (2006) – has long argued that China’s financial evolution would have profound consequences for global asset allocation.
Podcast details
Diana Choyleva appeared on the MoneyWeek Talks podcast, a series hosted by editors Kalpana Fitzpatrick and Andrew van Sickle. Previous episodes have featured guests including former Bank of England governor Mervyn King and former UK prime minister Rishi Sunak. Choyleva’s conversation covered the unravelling of globalisation, the AI race and the reshaping of China’s equity market. The podcast is available to subscribers and offers listeners access to discussion with influential economists, policymakers and business leaders on financial success, investing and wealth management.
