Emerging economic giant may trigger worldwide shift from oil and gas, say Hertsgaard and Pope

In the Colombian city of Cartagena, a gathering set for the end of April could recalibrate the global fight against climate change. The First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, represents a direct response to the diplomatic impasse at last year’s UN COP30 summit and aims to shift the terrain from political stalemate to economic momentum.

The conference, scheduled for 28-29 April 2026, will operate under a critical procedural difference from UN climate talks: majority rule. This format, confirmed by organisers, is designed to prevent a handful of petrostates from vetoing progress, as happened in Belém when Saudi Arabia led a group that blocked the inclusion of a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap and even the term “fossil fuels” from the final text. Instead, this meeting will focus on “actionable solutions” for governments already committed to the transition.

Its core objective is to begin drafting the very roadmap that was stymied at COP30, building on the ‘Belem Declaration on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels’ already signed by 24 countries. Energy and environment ministers from what is being termed a “coalition of the willing” will share plans for moving their economies beyond oil, gas, and coal. They will be joined by climate activists, Indigenous leaders, and trade union representatives to tackle practical challenges, such as how to phase out the estimated $7 trillion in annual global fossil fuel subsidies without harming dependent communities and workers.

The economic superpower in the room

The most significant element of this coalition is not merely its political will, but its formidable economic weight. At COP30, at least 85 countries backed the call for a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap. This group included major economies like Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Brazil, and Mexico. Collectively, these 85 nations have a Gross National Product (GNP) of approximately $33.3 trillion.

This figure eclipses the $30.6 trillion GNP of the United States and is substantially larger than China’s $19.4 trillion. This concentration of economic heft provides the coalition with enormous potential leverage. Mohamed Adow, director of the non-profit Power Shift Africa, argues that such a bloc signalling a clear intent to move beyond fossil fuels would send “an unmistakable message that the age of oil, gas, and coal is ending, and the smart money is shifting.” The logic for investors is clear: if a vast segment of the global economy commits to a transparent transition plan, pouring new capital into fossil fuel infrastructure risks creating stranded assets.

The potential addition of sub-national governments could amplify this effect dramatically. California Governor Gavin Newsom, a presumed 2028 US presidential candidate, has been invited and has consistently positioned himself as a global climate leader. Adding California’s $4.1 trillion GDP to the coalition’s total would create an economic bloc worth around $37.4 trillion—not far behind the combined $50 trillion GDP of the US and China. Newsom has highlighted that under his leadership, California’s economy grew while achieving two-thirds clean electricity, and he has vowed the state would “fill the void” left by federal climate inaction.

Market forces and global context

This initiative seeks to harness and accelerate existing market trends. Global investment in the energy transition hit a record $2.4 trillion in 2024, with spending on renewable power, grids, and storage now exceeding fossil fuel investment. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged to help create a “global platform” to manage the decline of fossil fuels, notes that 90% of this clean investment remains concentrated in advanced economies and China, highlighting a need for broader deployment.

The conference also unfolds against a backdrop of heightened energy insecurity. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted oil, gas, and fertiliser shipments, which the IEA has called the “greatest threat to global energy security in history.” This volatility underscores the risks of fossil fuel dependence, a point not lost on the co-hosts: Colombia is a major coal exporter and the Netherlands is home to oil giant Shell.

Resistance, however, remains deeply entrenched. At COP30, over 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists were in attendance. Furthermore, despite past pledges, G20 governments provided a record $1.4 trillion in public money to fossil fuels in 2022, and $665 billion in 2023. Phasing out these subsidies is a key conference focus, as their removal could both cut emissions and generate significant tax revenues.

The Colombia conference aims to prove that a decisive turn is possible, echoing the impact of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which helped bend the global emissions trajectory. A major outcome from COP30 that will inform the discussions is the agreement to create a “just transition mechanism” to support countries, workers, and communities in moving away from fossil fuel-based economies. The goal in Cartagena is to begin putting concrete, equitable flesh on that bone.