Some parts of the UK are forecast to be hotter than Barbados this weekend, as temperatures across southern and eastern England are expected to climb high enough to trigger official heatwave conditions.
The Met Office said temperatures will rise steadily into the high 20s across the country later this week, with 30C possible in southern parts of England by Friday. By Saturday, areas in the south and south-east are likely to meet heatwave criteria, with the warmer conditions spreading more widely on Sunday when thermometers could hit 32C in the hottest spots. Monday could bring even higher temperatures, potentially reaching 33C in parts of the same region, the forecaster added.
For comparison, Barbados — the eastern Caribbean island — is forecast to see temperatures fluctuate between 26C and 30C on Sunday, according to the Met Office. That means some UK locations could exceed the Caribbean high.
The heat is being driven by a marked north-south split, with high pressure over mainland Europe drawing warm and humid air to southern and eastern areas, while cooler, more changeable conditions persist in the north-west. Gregory Wolverson, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: “This week’s weather reflects a contrast we often see in summer, with more unsettled conditions passing to the north-west of the UK while heat builds in the south and east.” He added that as the weekend approaches, conditions will become more widely settled and temperatures will rise all round.
Despite the warmth, Wolverson cautioned that the heat may not be accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine. “It’s important to note that while temperatures may be high, we might not all see the wall-to-wall sunshine and blue skies we experienced back in May, because there is more cloud around,” he said. There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing, particularly later each day, which could bring heavy showers and localised impacts. Spells of rain are also expected, especially across northern and western areas.
What counts as a heatwave — and why the thresholds differ
According to the Met Office, an official heatwave in the UK is defined as a period of at least three consecutive days during which daily maximum temperatures meet or exceed a specific threshold. That threshold is not uniform across the country; it varies by county to reflect the different baseline climates found from northern Scotland to southern England.
For Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and parts of the south-west of England, the threshold is 25C. For London and its surrounding counties, the threshold is 28C. Elsewhere, the Met Office applies a sliding scale: thresholds of 26C to 28C are used across central and south-east England, depending on the local climate. This means that a temperature of 27C, for example, would meet the heatwave definition in some areas but fall short in others.
The Met Office said that many parts of southern and eastern England are likely to see temperatures high enough to meet their respective heatwave thresholds this weekend.
Health alerts and safety warnings
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued a yellow heat health alert for the East Midlands, the East of England, London and the south-east of England. The alert comes into force at 3pm on Wednesday and will remain in place until 8pm on Monday, June 22.
According to the UKHSA, a yellow alert means there is likely to be a “greater risk to life of vulnerable people” and an “increased use of healthcare services” by this same demographic. The agency also warns of an “increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm” and a likely rise in water‑related incidents, including “risks from cold water shock and drowning”.
Vulnerable groups identified in the research briefing include older people — particularly women over 75, those living alone, or in care homes — as well as individuals with pre-existing respiratory or cardiovascular conditions. Public health advice recommends drinking more fluids, avoiding the sun between 11am and 3pm, closing windows and curtains in rooms that get direct sunlight, and checking on older family members, friends or neighbours.
The Met Office also urged caution for anyone heading to the coast, noting that sea-surface temperatures are not yet as high as they would be in mid-summer. Average sea temperatures around the UK in June typically range from 14C to 17.6C, depending on the region — far cooler than the 28C waters found off Barbados. At least 15 people died after getting into trouble in open water during a hot spell earlier in June.
Matt Day, general manager at Beccles Lido in Suffolk, told the Press Association he expected more visitors this weekend. “There’s a very obvious trend between forecast weather and the number of people that attend,” he said. On a typical weekend the lido attracts 200 to 500 people, he said, whereas during heatwaves visitor numbers at weekends increase to 500 to 600 per day. He added that people tend to attend “based on weather forecast rather than actual weather”, though bookings can “tail off” when thunderstorms are predicted.
