The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued what it describes as its most authoritative climate information source — a comprehensive update on the developing El Niño event, produced in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The bulletin is designed to serve as the definitive reference for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, energy and water management.
The WMO’s role as an authoritative source
As the United Nations’ specialised agency for weather, climate and water, the WMO provides the official global reference on El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña. The organisation has now confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, warning that above-average temperatures will be felt “nearly everywhere” in the coming months. According to the WMO, there is an 80% chance that El Niño will be fully established between June and August 2026, rising to a 90% probability thereafter. Most forecast models, the WMO notes, indicate the event will be “at least moderate – and possibly strong,” though the organisation is not using the term “Super El Niño.” The last El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures recorded in 2024.
The IRI, which partners with the WMO on El Niño and La Niña updates, has independently observed a rapid transition to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific as of mid-May 2026. The IRI estimates a 98% probability of El Niño during May–July 2026, further reinforcing the WMO’s assessment.
What this means for the planet
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Events typically develop between March and June, peak between November and February, and last nine to 12 months, occurring every two to seven years. Their impacts on global temperatures are usually most pronounced in the second year after development.
The WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK Met Office, projects that global annual mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. There is an 86% chance that one year in that period will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. Beyond that, predictions from the same update indicate that 2027 could temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and become the hottest year recorded.
The warming influence of El Niño is layered on top of long-term climate change. While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events themselves, it amplifies their associated impacts — a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather. The WMO warns that El Niño is a major driver of global weather patterns, fuelling heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts and floods.
Global and UK implications
El Niño’s footprint extends far beyond the Pacific, with significant social and economic consequences for human populations and the environment. In agriculture, the phenomenon is expected to create drought-like conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia, with a weaker monsoon season in South Asia that will negatively affect rice, grain, sugar and palm oil production. The Greater Horn of Africa may receive below-normal rainfall, while Southern Africa could face reduced maize production due to drought. Conversely, parts of eastern Africa such as Kenya may see their maize crops benefit from additional rainfall. In the Americas, soybean production in the US, Argentina and Brazil is likely to gain from more favourable growing conditions, though coffee production may suffer. Wetter conditions are expected in parts of the southern United States.
These agricultural disruptions can cascade through global supply chains, affecting food prices and trade. Water resources are also at risk: El Niño can lead to prolonged water shortages and drought in some regions while causing excessive rainfall in others. In the Atlantic Basin, El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity, while enhancing it in the Pacific.
For the UK, the picture is more variable and less predictable. Research suggests that El Niño years are often associated with colder winters, though this is not a definitive rule. Other analyses point to milder, wetter conditions during autumn and winter, driven by shifts in atmospheric circulation and more active storm tracks that could raise flood risks, particularly in western and northern regions. Summer temperatures may be pushed higher, but seasonal variations become more noticeable, with the potential for sudden shifts to cooler, unsettled conditions and more days of rain. The overall pattern is one of greater swings between weather extremes.
The WMO’s update — and the underlying collaboration with the IRI — is intended to give policymakers and disaster managers the information they need to prepare. The United Nations has urged countries to bolster early warning systems in light of the forecast. Sectors from energy and water management to health and agriculture are being told to anticipate a period of heightened climate risk as the El Niño event strengthens through the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
