British refineries have been asked to maximise jet fuel production as part of government contingency planning, amid growing fears that the Iran war will force planes to be grounded.
Strait of Hormuz disruption
Normal flows of fossil fuels from the Gulf have effectively been at a standstill since the war broke out, after the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the vital shipping channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the resulting supply crisis as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” and the “greatest energy security challenge in history”.
The impact on global jet fuel flows has been stark. Global jet fuel shipments fell to the lowest recorded level last week. Just under 2.3m tonnes of jet fuel and kerosene were transported on ships in the seven days to 26 April, according to initial analysis by the data company Kpler, which first began tracking shipments in 2017. That figure represents less than half the average weekly volume shipped before the war.
The IEA has further warned that Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel left before shortages become critical if Middle East supplies are not restored. The EU is considering measures that would require countries to hold jet fuel stockpiles and potentially redistribute them. The US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran has warned against passage through the Strait and engaged in attacks on vessels. Volatility in energy markets has seen Brent crude oil prices surge.
Government response
The energy minister, Michael Shanks, said the government is closely monitoring UK jet fuel stocks and working with airlines, airports, fuel suppliers and other governments, as carriers face rocketing fuel costs as a result of the conflict. A contingency planning group of ministers, led by Chief Secretary Darren Jones, is meeting twice weekly to focus on monitoring stock levels and supply chain disruption plans.
“UK airlines typically buy fuel months in advance, and aviation fuel suppliers hold bunkered stocks. The UK imports jet fuel supplies from a range of countries not reliant on the strait, including the United States,” Shanks wrote in a ministerial statement. The government has been urging the public to continue with normal driving habits and travel plans, aiming to calm anxieties over potential shortages. The Department for Transport (DfT) has confirmed that airlines are not currently reporting shortages, and the government has stated there is “no current need to change upcoming travel plans.”
Airline assurances and contingency measures
Airlines UK has stated that “UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply,” a point Shanks repeated in his statement. Airlines have insisted there are no supply problems expected during their typical four-to-six-week horizon, although some carriers have already announced flight cancellations and have been lobbying for government help amid rising fuel prices and a possible supply crisis.
To prevent unnecessary disruption, Airport Coordination Ltd – the independent body that manages slots at UK airports – announced on Friday that exemptions to the “use-it-or-lose-it” rule can be granted during fuel shortages. Airlines that cancel flights because of a lack of fuel will not lose their valuable takeoff and landing slots, which can otherwise be forfeited when flights fail to operate over a period. The move is intended to prevent airlines from flying empty solely to protect slots.
The budget carrier Jet2 said on Wednesday it remained in contact with its fuel suppliers and airports. The group had hedged 87% of its fuel requirement for the peak summer season, at an average price of $707 a metric tonne, giving it “a high degree of cost certainty”. It added that “current geopolitical uncertainty” over the Middle East conflict meant holidaymakers were booking trips closer to departure, making it difficult to predict bookings for the peak summer season and beyond. EasyJet has reported hedging 84% of its jet fuel needs for the first half of the year and 62% for the second half.
Ryanair’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, earlier warned of potential disruptions from early June if the conflict did not end, though fuel companies have since become more confident about supply. Heathrow airport told investors it was facing an “uncertain outlook” as a result of the conflict, despite reporting a short-term boost in the number of passengers travelling through the airport to change planes because of airspace closures in the Middle East. Almost 19 million passengers travelled through the airport during the first three months of the year, an increase of 3.7% compared with a year earlier. Heathrow said it had “temporarily absorbed demand from elsewhere” but did not expect this to continue for the rest of the year, given “significant uncertainty” in the region.
Declining UK refinery capacity
The government’s request for refineries to maximise jet fuel supply comes against a backdrop of a drastically reduced domestic refining sector. There are now only four remaining refineries in the UK, after closures at the Grangemouth and Lindsey refineries in 2025.
The remaining sites are: Fawley in Hampshire, owned by ExxonMobil; Humber in Lincolnshire, owned by Phillips 66; Valero’s Pembroke refinery in Wales; and Essar’s Stanlow site in Essex. These refineries produce a range of refined products including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil to meet domestic demand and for export. The number of UK refineries has fallen from a peak of 18 in the 1970s, as has the UK’s output of petrol and diesel.
Grangemouth, Scotland’s only refinery, ceased crude refining in April 2025 and is being converted into an import terminal. The Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire entered administration in June 2025 and ceased crude processing after its owner, the Prax Group, collapsed due to financial losses and other factors. The UK refining sector also faces high carbon taxes that are not imposed on refineries in the US, the Middle East and India. Fuels Industry UK has warned that this puts domestic refiners at a disadvantage and risks exporting jobs and emissions.
Despite the reduced capacity, the UK continues to import jet fuel from a range of sources. According to government data, Kuwait is the primary source of imported jet fuel, accounting for 38% of the total (4.1 million tonnes). The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia each provide over 1 million tonnes. In 2023, top partners for UK fuel imports included Norway, the United States, the Netherlands, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Petroleum product imports increased by 5.9% from 2023 to 2024, with diesel (40%) and jet fuel (33%) being the largest components, driven by increased demand and reduced refinery production.
