Minister warns Farage’s migration policy risks EU trade conflict exceeding Trump tariffs
A senior government minister has issued a stark warning that Reform UK’s flagship immigration policies would plunge the UK into a devastating trade war with the European Union, with consequences he claims would be “far worse” than those posed by Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of renegotiating the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU, told The Independent that tearing up the settled status rights of EU citizens would spark immediate retaliation, risking price rises and job losses. The warning comes ahead of a crucial week for UK-EU relations, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves due to outline the government’s economic vision and a key parliamentary assembly meeting in Brussels.
The Stakes: An £800 Billion Relationship
The minister’s alarm centres on the sheer scale of trade at risk. He stated that trade with the EU is worth approximately £800 billion a year, a figure dwarfing transatlantic commerce. By comparison, research indicates that the full implementation of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could raise the average levy on EU imports to the US to 15.2%, with a potential impact of shaving 0.1-0.2 percentage points off UK GDP.
“If you think that Boris Johnson left us with a bad deal, think about what Nigel Farage would do in power,” Mr Thomas-Symonds said, dismissing the Reform leader as “not a serious candidate for prime minister.” He argued that the fallout from targeting EU citizens would be more severe than any US-led trade dispute.
Reform’s Plans: A Retrospective Overhaul
The policies in question, unveiled by Reform UK last month, represent a wholesale overhaul of the immigration system. Key proposals with direct implications for EU nationals include the abolition of Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). This would see no new awards of permanent residence, with existing grants—including the Settled Status secured by over 5 million EU citizens—rescinded and replaced with a five-year renewable visa.
The plans, which Reform states are intended to have retrospective effect, would also restrict access to public funds to British nationals only. This directly targets the welfare payments currently available to those with settled status. Deputy leader Richard Tice defended the approach, stating: “Why should we pay anybody to come to our country and then pay them benefits? We can’t afford to pay people to sit at home on their backsides.”
Other measures outlined in the party’s blueprint include introducing mass deportation laws, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, and significantly tightening family visa requirements.
The Economic Backlash: Billions in Agreements at Risk
Mr Thomas-Symonds warned that unpicking the rights of EU citizens would shatter the fragile consensus underpinning current UK-EU trade. “Farage is also talking about taking all welfare support away from EU settled citizens. Frankly with that we probably would end up with us in some sort of trade war with the EU,” he said.
He pointed to specific, hard-won agreements now in jeopardy. The linking of the UK and EU Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), he noted, is expected to save UK exporters £800 million and prevent broader economic losses of up to £8 billion by 2030. Alongside a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) deal to ease food and drink trade, these agreements are together projected to be worth up to £9 billion a year to the UK economy by 2040.
“He’s already said he would take that away,” the minister said of Mr Farage. “Think as well of the progress we’ve been making recently… Nigel Farage would put all that at risk.” The SPS agreement, secured in May 2025 and expected to take effect in mid-2027, is itself forecast to add nearly £9 billion to the economy and potentially lower food prices.
Reform’s Rejection and the Government’s “Ruthless Pragmatism”
Reform UK has categorically rejected the warnings. A party spokesperson accused Labour of “scaremongering,” calling the idea that prioritising British taxpayers would spark a trade war “ridiculous.”
Mr Thomas-Symonds, however, positioned his government’s approach of “ruthless pragmatism” as the responsible alternative. He has ruled out the UK ever rejoining the EU or entering a customs union, but argues for deepening the current relationship. “I’m talking to people up and down the country on a weekly basis, and there is support for the closer relationship that we have already built… but no appetite to reopen the debates of the past,” he stated, despite a BMG poll from 4 March suggesting 45% support for rejoining versus 37% against.
He believes Brexit will be “an important dividing line” at the next election and welcomed a debate with both the Conservatives and Reform, whom he accused of wanting to take away the economic benefits of the current reset.
A Crucial Diplomatic Week
The warnings are timed to a pivotal moment in UK-EU diplomacy. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the high-profile Mais Lecture on 4 March, where she is expected to echo concerns about the economic danger of policies that threaten ties with Europe.
This will be followed by the 7th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly in Brussels on 16-17 March, a forum Mr Thomas-Symonds has previously used to advocate for closer cooperation. The government’s stance is that its work to “make Brexit work” through practical agreements on trade and emissions is now directly imperilled by the prospect of a rival political programme built on unravelling citizen rights.
