Spain is bracing for a dramatic spike in temperatures this week, with forecasts predicting conditions more akin to midsummer than late April. The mercury is expected to reach around 30°C in Madrid on Tuesday, a full 10°C above the seasonal average, while Seville could see highs of 34°C, approximately 9°C above the norm for this time of year.
This unusual heat is being driven by a specific meteorological setup. An area of low pressure situated over the Atlantic is funnelling a persistent south-westerly flow, pulling warm air directly from north Africa across the Iberian Peninsula. Compounding the effect are high-pressure systems and clear skies, which allow intense solar radiation to heat the ground unimpeded.
Accompanying the heat is a significant plume of Saharan dust, known as *Calima*, which is forecast to travel northwards, covering skies over Iberia and south-western France. The phenomenon is expected to create vivid orange and red sunrises and sunsets but also carries serious implications for air quality. Similar events in recent years have seen concentrations of harmful PM10 particles soar well above healthy limits, with levels exceeding 200µg/m³ recorded in April 2024, far above the 50µg/m³ threshold.
The heatwave arrives amid a backdrop of severe and persistent drought. Just three years ago, in April 2023, Spain experienced its hottest and driest April on record since 1961, with temperatures in Córdoba hitting 38.8°C. The current combination of extreme heat, dry conditions, and desiccating winds has raised acute fears of a repeat of last summer’s devastating wildfire season.
Brazil Braces for Heat and Agricultural Strain
Meanwhile, a widespread heat event is building across several Brazilian states. Forecasts from Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology indicate high temperatures for São Paulo, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Santa Catarina over the coming days, eventually spreading into the key agricultural state of Minas Gerais. Daytime maximums are predicted to reach the high 30s Celsius later this week, sitting 5-10°C above the seasonal average.
This follows an intense heatwave at the end of March and start of April, which saw temperatures of 35°C to 38°C in southern regions. Scientists are warning of a potential “thermal disaster” in 2026 if, as projections indicate, an El Niño phenomenon develops in the second half of the year. The combination of global warming and El Niño could drastically increase the frequency and duration of such heatwaves.
The agricultural impact is a major concern. Research suggests extreme heat and altered rainfall patterns pose significant risks to key crops. In potato cultivation, high temperatures can inhibit tuber formation, while coffee production in Minas Gerais is threatened by longer droughts and more intense heat, with some areas potentially becoming economically unviable.
Severe Thunderstorms Threaten Southern Africa
In a contrasting severe weather event, Botswana and South Africa are expected to be hit by severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. Meteorological authorities warn that the heaviest downpours could deliver rainfall rates of 20-30mm per hour, bringing a high risk of localised flooding. The storms are also likely to produce frequent lightning and hail.
Such intense rainfall is characteristic of April in parts of Africa, which marks the long rainy season in East Africa. The region has recently experienced deadly severe weather; in June 2026, storms along South Africa’s eastern coast caused fatal flooding and tornadoes.
Record-Challenging Heat Replaces Cold Across North America
A dramatic temperature reversal is underway in North America. A recent cold plunge that brought snow to the western United States is giving way to what forecasters describe as exceptional mid-spring warmth. The core of the heat will focus on north-western states including Montana, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, where temperatures could soar above 30°C – around 15°C above the seasonal norm.
This anomalous warmth will spread eastwards, with parts of the Midwest and Northeast forecast to see very high temperatures by the end of the week. An unusual and prolonged heatwave is affecting the eastern United States, threatening to shatter long-standing daily records in cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. The National Weather Service has forecast highs of 93°F (33.9°C) for Washington D.C. on Wednesday and Thursday, with Philadelphia expecting 92°F.
While temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit are not unheard of in April, the duration of this event is considered rare and “borderline unprecedented” for the season. The heat follows a period of severe storms that impacted states from Kansas to Wisconsin and is expected to worsen existing drought conditions across the South and East, where little rain is forecast.
