The weight of history and the allure of breaking it will hang heavy in the air at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this afternoon. For Everton, the tantalising prospect of scoring the first derby winner at their new home is tempered by a miserable record in such fixtures: just one home league win against Liverpool since October 2010. For the visitors, the derby presents a chance to steady a rocking ship, but for manager Arne Slot, it carries the palpable pressure of a job under threat.
A New Ground for Old Struggles
This fixture marks the first Merseyside derby at Everton’s new stadium, a supposed fortress where the reality has been somewhat spotty. David Moyes’s side sit 14th in the home table this season, a stark contrast to a brilliant away form that has them tenth overall. Yet, historical precedent is daunting. Everton have won only four home league derbies this century, though they have proven difficult to beat, with 10 draws in the 13 hosted at Goodison since 2012. The new surroundings offer a symbolic fresh start, but the old psychological hurdle remains.
The stakes extend far beyond local bragging rights. Liverpool sit fifth, their Champions League qualification place deemed “relatively safe” by some observers, but Everton lurk just five points behind in tenth. A home win would slash that gap to two points, throwing European qualification for both clubs into a new, tense light. For Slot, the derby is an opportunity for his team to “show some character” after a run of four defeats in their last five games across all competitions, a period in which they have scored only three goals.
Strategic Battles and Recruitment Failings
On the pitch, the tactical contours are clear. Everton, with a physical defence and solid midfield built around Idrissa Gueye and James Garner, will look to exploit perceived weaknesses in the Liverpool backline. They sense opportunity around Virgil van Dijk, who is viewed as being off his previous peak, and in wide areas where Liverpool’s full-backs are either past their best or playing out of position. The plan will be to find Iliman Ndiaye and Dwight McNeil, firing crosses into a box where they will need bodies for knockdowns.
Liverpool’s approach, meanwhile, will hinge on their wide attackers targeting spaces between full-backs and centre-backs, with the full-backs keeping width to cut back for Alexander Isak. They will hope Florian Wirtz can find pockets of space to slide balls in behind. Yet, these plans are hamstrung by a deeper, self-inflicted issue. As one fan correspondence noted, Liverpool’s problem is not bad luck but a £450m spend on “a load of players who don’t fit together, seemingly with no real plan.”
This follows what was once considered a golden era of recruitment. The failure to adequately replace key departures, leaving the squad short at centre-back and right-back, has led to a team lacking cohesion, physicality, and organisation. Slot’s specific headache today is in defence, where he has replaced two attack-minded full-backs with two more of the same profile. This forces Dominic Szoboszlai to play at right-back, depriving the midfield of its best operator, and places hope on the ball-carrying of Curtis Jones. Up front, Isak continues as the reference point, with the mercurial Wirtz given another chance to prove he has the required speed of thought and combativeness.
Injury Crisis and Managerial Pressure
Compounding Liverpool’s structural issues is a severe injury crisis, particularly in attack. The most devastating blow is the loss of Hugo Ekitike, who suffered a serious Achilles tendon rupture. Such injuries are among the worst for any athlete, a fact grimly underscored by the mention of former player Neil Webb, whose career was severely impacted by a similar rupture. Ekitike is expected to be sidelined for many months. Diogo Jota has also been plagued by injuries, including recent calf and knee problems, while Joe Gomez, Alisson, Conor Bradley, and Wataru Endo are also absent.
This context forms the backdrop for intense scrutiny on Arne Slot. He has bemoaned injury and bad luck, but there is little acknowledgement of his own responsibility. His record stands at 50 wins in 80 games, but he recently became the first Liverpool manager to lose his 100th game in charge since Graeme Souness in 1992. Fans question his caution, notably in the deployment of the exciting Rio Ngumoha, who is benched today with Slot citing the need for set-piece solidity against Everton.
Slot has outlined a long-term transfer strategy focused on bringing in young talent, acknowledging the impending departures of Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson. He has indicated the club is a “trading club” and that similar vast expenditure is unlikely. Yet, the immediacy of the derby and the need for a result to calm growing turbulence is inescapable. As one email put it, while factors like an injury list featuring an ACL tear, a broken leg, and an Achilles rupture are beyond his control, it is “hard to see where the positive influence is.”
Everton, in contrast, are relatively injury-free and arrive with momentum, having won three of their last five. David Moyes has built a functional side; if they can find a reliable goalscorer this summer—their 39 league goals in 32 games is a clear weakness—and keep Jarrad Branthwaite fit, prospects are brighter. Today, they are unchanged from a 2-2 draw at Brentford. Liverpool show four changes from their loss to PSG: Andy Robertson, Curtis Jones, Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo come in for Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, Alexis Mac Allister and the stricken Ekitike. Chris Kavanagh will referee a contest where history, strategy, and sheer pressure collide.
