SpaceX aims for the largest IPO ever at $1.78tn valuation, a figure that would dwarf every previous stock market debut and put founder Elon Musk on course to become a trillionaire. The company plans to raise between $75bn and $86bn by listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with shares priced at a fixed $135 each. The flotation is scheduled for 12 June 2026.
Valuation concerns
The eye-watering valuation has drawn sharp scrutiny from financial analysts, given the company’s financial performance. SpaceX reported total revenue of $18.7bn in 2025, a 33% increase from the previous year, but also posted a net loss of $4.94bn. That means the company is targeting a valuation of more than 90 times its annual revenues — a multiple that most investors would consider astronomically high for a business that is not yet profitable on a net basis.
Financial data firm Morningstar warned this week that the company is “significantly overvalued.” Using a discounted cash flow model, Morningstar values SpaceX at $780bn, less than half the proposed valuation. “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” the firm said.
Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at iForex, described the valuation as “stratospherically high” and questioned how it could be justified before the book-building process had even begun. “On any normal metric the numbers defy belief given that last year SpaceX lost $4.9bn on the back of total revenues of $18.7bn,” he said. “While the increase in revenues of 33% from 2024 was welcome, most of the improvement came from its Starlink service, which contributed about $11.4bn.” At a $1.7tn valuation, the price-to-sales multiple stands at 92 times, he noted.
The losses are amplified by SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which closed in February 2026. In 2025, xAI generated only $3.2bn in revenue but posted a $6.35bn operating loss, with capital expenditure reaching $12.73bn. That division is now a significant drag on SpaceX’s bottom line.
A major driver of SpaceX’s revenue growth is Starlink, its satellite internet service, which contributed $11.4bn — roughly 61% of total revenue — and delivered an operating profit of $4.42bn in 2025. The service has surpassed 10 million subscribers globally, though average revenue per user has declined slightly. Meanwhile, the launch services segment, which provides rockets for external customers, generated $4.1bn in revenue but has grown more slowly as much of SpaceX’s launch capacity is directed toward its own Starlink missions.
SpaceX’s ambitions also extend to orbital artificial intelligence data centres, a concept that involves deploying vast constellations of satellites to host AI compute power. The company has indicated it could launch up to one million such satellites, and Google is reportedly in discussions with SpaceX about using its launch capacity for “Project Suncatcher,” a plan to deploy space-based AI compute. The economic viability of these orbital data centres, however, remains uncertain.
Market context
The SpaceX float is part of a wave of mega-IPOs expected this summer, with AI rivals ChatGPT and Anthropic also planning to list. Analysts say the sheer size of the offerings could create ructions in the markets as investors scramble to raise cash to participate.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is set to pitch the SpaceX IPO to thousands of the bank’s ultra-high-net-worth clients in a live interactive discussion this week from the bank’s headquarters, according to invitations sent to clients. He will be joined by Mary Callahan Erdoes, head of the bank’s asset and wealth management division, as well as SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell and chief financial officer Bret Johnsen.
The listing is expected to lead to SpaceX’s inclusion in major indices such as the Nasdaq 100, which would trigger forced buying by index funds. That could provide a significant source of demand, though it also means ordinary investors — including pension funds and tracker funds — will gain indirect exposure to Musk’s ventures.
Musk will retain an 85% voting majority after the IPO through super-voting shares, a concentration of control that analysts flag as a key-person risk. The company also faces concerns over space debris, given its plans to retire large numbers of orbital data centre satellites in graveyard orbits.
Despite the valuation doubts, private market platforms have seen strong demand for SpaceX shares, often at a premium, and several investment funds have already built stakes in the company’s private equity. Yet Morningstar’s advice to long-term investors is to wait: the firm believes more attractive entry points will emerge after the IPO.
