Former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has warned that pro-UK voters in Aberdeen South must not split their support in next week’s by-election, arguing that any votes cast for Reform UK would hand victory to the SNP.
Voters will go to the polls on Thursday, June 18, to elect a successor to Stephen Flynn, the former SNP Westminster leader who resigned his seat after being elected to Holyrood last month. A new law now prohibits individuals from simultaneously holding seats in both parliaments.
Speaking ahead of a campaign visit to the constituency, Baroness Davidson described the result as “on a knife-edge” and issued a stark warning to unionist voters. “Aberdeen South’s next MP will either be a Scottish Conservative MP, in Douglas Lumsden, who will relentlessly champion the oil and gas industry, or an SNP MP who will only accelerate the decline of the North Sea,” she said. “No other party can beat the SNP here. That is why pro-UK voters in Aberdeen South must unite on Thursday and vote for Douglas Lumsden to be their new MP. If they vote for any other party, including Reform, then they will wake up on Friday morning with another SNP MP.”
Davidson, a prominent figure who revitalised the Scottish Conservatives and remains influential in unionist circles, stressed that only Lumsden could be trusted to reverse what she described as “the reckless policies from the SNP and Labour that are destroying the oil and gas sector.”
Oil and gas becomes key battleground
The by-election has turned the North Sea energy industry into a central campaign issue. Lumsden, a Member of the Scottish Parliament for the North East Scotland region and a former co-leader of Aberdeen City Council, has worked in the oil and gas sector for 25 years. He came second in the seat at the 2019 general election. “This by-election is personal for me having worked in the industry for 25 years,” he said. “I’m angry about what anti-oil-and-gas SNP and Labour politicians are doing to this city. If all pro-UK voters unite behind me, then Aberdeen South can have an MP who will always stand up for oil and gas workers, and back plans to get Britain drilling again.”
The SNP candidate is Richard Thomson, a former MP for Gordon who served from 2019 until his defeat in 2024. Conservative research has suggested that Thomson mentioned Scottish independence more frequently than oil and gas during his previous tenure as an MP, a line of attack the Tories are likely to press in the final days of the campaign.
The concern among senior Conservatives is that Reform UK could peel away enough votes to allow the SNP to hold the seat. At the 2024 general election, Stephen Flynn won Aberdeen South with 32.8 per cent of the vote, Labour came second with 24.7 per cent, the Conservatives third with 24.4 per cent, and Reform UK fourth with 6.9 per cent. With Labour’s candidate Nurul Hoque Ali – a councillor for Bridge of Don who finished fourth in Gordon and Buchan in 2024 – also in the race, the unionist field is crowded, making a split in pro-UK support a real risk.
Ruth Davidson’s intervention reflects the party’s fear that even a modest performance by Reform could tip the balance. “Douglas Lumsden is the only candidate who can be trusted to reverse the reckless policies from the SNP and Labour that are destroying the oil and gas sector,” she said. Lumsden welcomed her backing, saying every vote would count and that he was determined to fight for each one.
Reform UK’s pitch to energy workers
Reform UK, which has been a growing force in Scottish politics and has polled second to the SNP in some recent surveys, is running Jo Hart as its candidate. Hart, a former nurse, previously stood as a Reform candidate in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election for Abershire West and in the 2024 general election for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, coming third on both occasions. She has faced controversy for past comments criticising the British royal family and for remarks concerning 5G masts.
The party has made the oil and gas industry a central plank of its campaign. Reform UK MSP Duncan Massey accused the SNP and Scottish Tories of having “presided over the decline” of the sector and said his party “outright rejects this approach”. “It makes no sense for the United Kingdom to sit on vast oil and gas reserves while importing energy from overseas,” he added. “Every barrel not produced in the North Sea is replaced by imports. That doesn’t reduce global emissions, it simply exports Scottish jobs. That’s why Reform UK supports new drilling and long-term investment in the North Sea. We believe energy workers should be backed, not punished.”
Massey noted that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Scotland leader Malcolm Offord had visited Ineos this week. “It is clearer than ever that the current net zero agenda is crippling British industry, increasing costs and threatening jobs,” he said. “Reform UK is the only party prepared to stand up for Scotland’s energy sector without apology.” He argued that only Hart “can be trusted to stand up for Scotland’s energy workers”.
The party’s platform includes a strong emphasis on expanding North Sea oil and gas production and reversing the ban on new drilling, a stance that puts it in direct competition with the Conservatives for the same pool of pro-UK, pro-industry voters. With the election just days away, the arithmetic of the unionist vote – and whether it can be unified behind one candidate – will determine whether the SNP retains a seat it has held since 2015.
