Temperatures could reach a balmy 24C in south-east England this week, potentially setting the warmest mark of the year for three days in a row before a sharp return to more typical April conditions.
Forecasters at the Met Office predict highs of 21C or 22C on Tuesday, rising further on Wednesday, offering a brief taste of summer. This warm interlude is set to be short-lived, however, with a significant cooldown expected from Thursday onwards.
The cause: From stormy lows to a southerly flow
This warmer spell arrives directly in the wake of Storm Dave, which brought severe disruption over the Easter weekend. The storm rapidly deepened, prompting the Met Office to issue yellow severe weather warnings for wind across Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of northern England, and north Wales. Gusts of 50-60 mph were expected widely, reaching 70 mph in exposed areas.
For parts of Wales, including Conwy, Gwynedd, and Anglesey, an amber warning was in force from Saturday evening into Sunday morning, indicating a higher risk of disruptive and potentially damaging winds. The Met Office warned that these conditions, with some reports suggesting gusts could hit 80-90 mph in exposed coastal spots in Scotland and northwest Ireland, could cause “injuries and danger to life” from flying debris and large waves, alongside significant travel disruption and power cuts.
With Storm Dave now moved away, the meteorological picture has flipped. “As Storm Dave has now moved away, and this high pressure is building behind it, we’re now dragging up warmer air from the continent,” a Met Office spokesperson said.
How the wind dictates the temperature
The spokesperson emphasised that the dramatic swing is “all purely down to wind direction at this time of year.” For the next couple of days, a southerly wind will draw warm air northwards from the continent, allowing temperatures to climb into the low-to-mid 20s. This mechanism is typical for producing early spring warmth in the UK.
While this week’s conditions have arrived slightly earlier than anticipated, such temperatures are not without precedent. Historical data shows the UK recorded highs of 25C in early April in both 2011 and 2020. April 2011 was the warmest April on record in England, characterised by exceptionally warm, dry, and sunny conditions, while April 2020 was the sunniest April on record for the UK.
This contrasts with the broader pattern of April 2024, which was largely unsettled, wet, and dull, particularly in Scotland and northern England which saw significantly above-average rainfall. That month was also marked by Storm Kathleen in early April.
The coming change
The Met Office warns of another “big change” arriving on Thursday. The wind direction will shift, ending the influx of continental warmth. Temperatures are expected to drop sharply to between 10C and 13C, bringing a return to the norm for the season alongside more changeable weather featuring “advances of rain and showers.”
This cooler, more unsettled regime is forecast to persist over the weekend, with temperatures hovering around 10C in the north and 14C in the south. The brief warm spell serves as a reminder, the spokesperson noted, that “it’s one of the seasons where it can change really quickly, day on day.”
