Keir Starmer’s promise to “smash the gangs” behind small boat crossings has been criticised by a leading immigration expert as the latest in a long line of bold, unachievable government pledges on migration, echoing a pattern of failure set by his Conservative predecessors.
Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory and the interim chair of the government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee, argues that the Prime Minister is repeating the mistakes of Rishi Sunak and David Cameron by employing “bullish rhetoric” with little evidence it can be delivered. “Governments of all stripes like to make bold claims, from ‘stop the boats’ and ‘smash the gangs’ to ‘net migration falling below 100,000’,” she said. “In practice the results have disappointed, because factors outside their control have played a huge role.”
Current Pledge Meets Rising Numbers
Starmer, who announced the “smash the gangs” pledge ahead of the 2024 election, framing it as “grip not gimmicks,” is facing mounting political pressure. As of 25 February 2026, 2,209 people had arrived in the UK on small boats, a 7% increase on the same period in 2025. The previous year saw 41,472 arrivals – the second-highest annual figure on record and a 13% rise from 2024.
The UK’s strategy hinges on cooperation with France. A “ground-breaking” pilot scheme agreed in July 2025 operates a “one-in, one-out” system, where small boat arrivals are returned to France while an equivalent number of migrants come via a new legal route. By early February 2026, 305 people had been returned and 367 admitted under this scheme. However, negotiations for a new £650 million security deal with Paris have reportedly stalled, with the existing £475 million agreement set to expire.
A History of Unmet Promises
Dr Sumption’s critique draws direct parallels with recent history. In January 2023, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made “stopping the boats” one of his five key pledges, a slogan later mounted on lecterns. By March 2025, after losing the election, Sunak admitted the phrase was “too stark, too binary.” His policy relied on a controversial plan to deport migrants to Rwanda.
Earlier still, David Cameron promised in 2010 to reduce net migration from “hundreds of thousands” to “tens of thousands.” By 2015, the figure had reached more than 300,000. This target, central to Conservative policy for five years, proved politically potent but practically unattainable.
The scale of the small boat phenomenon underscores the challenge. Between 2018 and 2025, some 193,000 people were detected arriving by this route. The vast majority claim asylum – 99% did so in 2025. Despite the tough rhetoric, returns have been low; by the end of 2025, only around 7,500 people who arrived by small boat had been returned, constituting just 4% of all arrivals since 2018.
Why Bold Pledges Persist
In her new book, *What Is Immigration Policy For?*, published on 31 March, Dr Sumption explores why governments consistently make promises they cannot keep. She identifies a fundamental tension between political messaging and policy reality. “People say they want their politicians to be honest, but when it comes to immigration policies the most honest political pitch often doesn’t work,” she said. “Saying ‘we don’t know if this will work, but we’ll try it out, and if it fails, we’ll try something new’ won’t land very well on the campaign trail.”
Consequently, she argues, debates are dominated by “bold claims with great certainty about things governments only partially control.” These factors include the sprawling, decentralised nature of smuggling gangs, the willingness of international partners like France to cooperate, and unexpected humanitarian crises, such as those in Ukraine and Hong Kong, which can drive sudden migration surges.
This pattern, she insists, is not party-specific but a global feature of immigration politics. The human cost remains stark: 24 people died attempting the Channel crossing in 2025 alone. Meanwhile, opposition figures like Nigel Farage have branded Starmer’s slogan a “total, abject failure” and a “farce,” arguing that rising numbers prove current policies are not a deterrent.
With the UK and France still wrangling over a new deal and the small boat tally continuing to rise, Dr Sumption’s analysis suggests the Prime Minister’s pledge is grappling with the same intractable forces that have undermined similar promises for over a decade.
