Sir Keir Starmer’s assertion that his government’s plan is working—backed by claims of the fastest-growing G7 economy, falling net migration and reduced NHS waiting lists—is being undercut by a mounting internal rebellion that has seen more than 95 Labour MPs call for his resignation and two heavyweight figures position themselves as potential successors. The Prime Minister’s efforts to project competence on the economy, migration and the health service are facing their most serious test yet, as the party’s electoral setbacks in recent local elections across England, Wales and Scotland have deepened divisions and emboldened alternative leadership bids.
Starmer’s claims and the evidence behind them
In a statement designed to demonstrate progress, Sir Keir said: “We now have the fastest-growing economy in the G7, net migration has fallen and NHS waiting lists are at their lowest level in three-and-a-half years. Our plan is working.” He pointed to measures aimed at alleviating the cost-of-living crisis, including a temporary VAT reduction to 5% on certain leisure and restaurant activities such as children’s meals and family cinema tickets, running from 25 June to 1 September 2026. The government has also introduced free bus travel for children aged five to 15 in England throughout August, funded by a £100 million commitment, suspended tariffs on more than 100 food products—estimated to save consumers over £150 million annually—and extended the fuel duty freeze until the end of 2026.
Official figures from the Office for National Statistics support parts of his economic case. The economy expanded by a higher-than-anticipated 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, from January to March, a rate that made the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7 for that period. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves welcomed the data, saying Labour’s choices were paying off. However, the ONS also noted that UK growth has been historically uneven; the country was one of the slowest-growing G7 economies in the first half of 2018, having been among the fastest between 2013 and 2016, with the vote to leave the European Union cited as a drag on investment.
On migration, ONS figures show net migration fell to an estimated 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and a drop of nearly 50% from the previous year. The peak was 944,000 in the year to March 2023. The decrease was driven by a 47% fall in non-EU nationals arriving for work and an 87% reduction in family members of international students granted permission to enter since 2023. The restrictions were initially introduced by the Conservative government and tightened by Labour home secretaries. The Migration Observatory has cautioned that the drop may be temporary, while refugee charities warned that the number of people allowed in via safe and legal routes has halved. Separate Home Office statistics show a 35% year-on-year fall in asylum seekers housed in hotels, to 20,885 at the end of March.
On the NHS, figures from NHS England for March showed the waiting list for treatments stood at 7.11 million, a reduction of 110,073 from February and down by more than half a million since July 2024—the lowest figure in three-and-a-half years. The number of patients waiting over a year has dropped by almost half in the last 12 months, to the lowest level for six years. The NHS delivered a record 18.6 million elective treatments and operations and a record 29.9 million diagnostic procedures in the last financial year. However, performance against the constitutional standard of 92% of patients being seen within 18 weeks remains well short: in March 2026, 65.3% were waiting 18 weeks, an improvement of 6.4% since July 2024 but still significantly below target. Meanwhile, accident and emergency departments are under record pressure; January 2026 saw the busiest January on record for A&E attendances, and the number of patients waiting more than 12 hours from a decision to admit was the highest on record.
Internal discontent mounts
Despite these official indicators, the Prime Minister’s position as Labour leader is increasingly precarious. By mid-May 2026, more than 95 Labour MPs had publicly called for his resignation or a timetable for his departure, following substantial electoral setbacks earlier this month across English councils, Wales and Scotland. Both Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting have criticised the government’s perceived failure to deliver the transformative change voters expected after Labour’s 2024 landslide victory.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is actively seeking a return to Parliament via the Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026, a move widely seen as a direct step towards a leadership challenge. Launching his campaign, he declared that “a vote for me in this by-election is a vote to change Labour,” pledging to give voters “the party back they used to know” and acknowledging that Labour “need to be better than we have been.” The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Burnham to stand. If elected, Burnham would have to resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester, triggering a separate mayoral by-election. The Makerfield constituency, which Labour won with a 5,399 majority in 2024, saw Reform UK secure every ward in the recent local elections. An early Survation poll conducted between 18 and 22 May shows a tight race, with Burnham on 43% and Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon on 40%.
Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary who has resigned from the Cabinet, has outlined a distinct policy platform that positions him as a leadership contender. His proposals include a “wealth tax that works” by equalising Capital Gains Tax with income tax bands of 20%, 40% and 45%, a move he claims could raise an additional £12 billion annually. Streeting has criticised the current system for “penalising work” and advocates closing loopholes that disguise income as capital gains. Tax experts have warned of potential capital flight and reduced investment.
Streeting’s vision also extends to early years support and housing. He has called for the revival of the Sure Start programme, originally launched by the New Labour government in 1999 to tackle child poverty and social exclusion, which studies suggest generated long-term benefits including NHS savings and improved educational outcomes. The current Labour government has already rebranded and expanded Sure Start as “Best Start”, with plans for 1,000 hubs by 2028 and £500 million allocated for their establishment. Streeting proposes increasing that current £1 billion allocation by an additional £1.7 billion. “The biggest thing that I think is broken in this country at the moment is that, for the first time in modern history, the prospects for the next generation are worse than the last,” he argued. “Restoring Sure Start would prove that this Labour Government is absolutely committed to building a better future for the next generation.”
On housing, Streeting has proposed planning reforms that would allow councils to benefit from the uplift in land value from development, using the proceeds to fund council homes and prevent children from growing up in temporary accommodation. He warned that councils failing to deliver could face having their decision-making powers revoked. “I took on failing NHS trusts. I will take on failing councils. Every child deserves a home to call their own and a fair chance to make the most of it,” he asserted.
The Prime Minister has maintained that he will not resign from Number 10, even if Burnham wins the by-election and potentially triggers a leadership contest. Some reports suggest that only cabinet-level resignations would force him to reconsider. Meanwhile, the internal divisions continue to sharpen: some MPs have signed letters urging against a leadership challenge, while others insist the party needs a change in direction. The government’s cost-of-living measures, while intended to ease pressure on families, come against a backdrop of persistent inflation, which is predicted to increase further due to the conflict in Iran, impacting oil prices and potentially energy and food costs.
The contest between the claims of a functioning plan and the reality of internal revolt leaves Labour at a crossroads, with the Makerfield by-election set to become the first major test of whether the party’s future lies with Starmer or one of his challengers.
