On the night of the Brexit vote, Nigel Farage declared the European Union “finished” and “dead”. France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and Italy’s Matteo Salvini all demanded their own referendums. Bulgaria’s then prime minister, Boyko Borissov, predicted a domino effect that would leave only Bulgaria, Romania and Greece inside the bloc. A decade later, not a single country has followed the United Kingdom out of the EU.
Instead of a cascade of exits, the European Union has grown more united and more ambitious. “Brexit changed the EU in one fundamental way,” Michael Roth, Germany’s former Europe minister, told the Guardian. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It’s seen as a warning.” The Brexit experience, he added, was so “damaging, so costly, so complicated, so complex” that the appetite for leaving across the EU is “very, very, very, very, very, very little”.
How Brexit strengthened the EU’s decision-making and unity
Far from crippling the bloc, the departure of the UK – described by the Bruegel thinktank’s Heather Grabbe as “an awkward partner, but a reliable partner” – removed the obstacle of “British exceptionalism” from the EU’s internal machinery. Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister who led the European Council from 2019 to 2024, told the Guardian that “Brexit made decisions easier … no doubt.” He said the vote allowed the EU to “be more engaged” in defence and security policy, which proved “useful preparation” for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The most concrete example is the European Peace Facility, created in March 2021 to fund military equipment and operations abroad. Originally worth €5bn, the fund has since grown to €17bn (£15bn) and has been supplemented by far greater financing to rearm Europe and support Ukraine. When Russia launched its full-scale attack in February 2022, Michel recalled, the EU and UK were united on support for Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow. “We were systematically, spontaneously, very close to each other, without the need for complicated preparatory tools,” he said.
Beyond crisis response, Brexit accelerated the EU’s push for “strategic autonomy” in defence. Initiatives such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) have seen increased integration. Yet the loss of the UK’s “full-spectrum military and defence-industrial capabilities” – which once represented a significant share of the EU’s total – does constrain the bloc’s ambitions, according to analysis in the research briefing.
Domestically, the EU has also found new momentum on issues once blocked by British resistance. Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists faction in the European parliament, cited the EU’s tough new law on deportations as a victory for what he called “the Giorgia majority” – a broad coalition spanning liberals, traditional conservatives and the far right. His party leader, Giorgia Meloni, who once called for Italy to leave the euro (a position Procaccini now dismisses as “fake news”), has long since shifted to working with EU centre-right leaders such as Ursula von der Leyen on support for Ukraine, migration and deregulation.
The EU’s internal cohesion has also been tested by authoritarian insiders. Viktor Orbán of Hungary served as “disruptor-in-chief”, exercising vetoes over big decisions. Grabbe, now at Bruegel, has long argued that such insiders pose a greater threat than Brexit ever did, contrasting the UK’s reliability with Orbán’s broken promise to back a €90bn loan for Ukraine. With Orbán defeated at the ballot box, EU officials are now considering contingency plans to prevent future vetoes by rogue new joiners.
EU growth: countries queueing to join
Where the UK’s exit was once predicted to trigger a wave of withdrawals, the opposite has occurred. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland have spurred a renewed appetite for EU membership. The EU started detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine this month. Accession prospects for western Balkan countries look more promising than at any time in the last decade. Iceland is planning a referendum on resuming EU accession talks on 29 August 2026; recent polls show a narrow lead for reopening talks. Support for membership is also growing in Norway, though it remains a minority view.
The EU is reforming its enlargement policy to accommodate new members through “gradual integration” into selected EU policies before full accession, an approach designed to address concerns about the bloc’s capacity to function with more members, especially in areas requiring unanimity. The potential for enlargement to include Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova would significantly expand the EU’s border with Russia, presenting new geopolitical challenges.
Public opinion across the EU has turned decisively in favour of the bloc. According to the research briefing, favourable views of the EU have improved across most member states since the Brexit vote, with significant increases in countries such as France and Germany. After Russia’s invasion, favourable views approached or reached record highs. Across nine EU member countries surveyed, a median of 62% viewed the EU favourably in 2026 – similar to or higher than in 2017.
UK influence slides down the EU’s priorities
As Brussels focuses on Russia’s war, Chinese economic competition and the unpredictability of US policy, the UK has slipped down the list of EU concerns. “The UK [is] one of many countries seeking a closer relationship,” Grabbe said. “The UK has slid down the list of priorities” as the EU confronts “whatever crazy thing Trump has done today”.
The loss of British influence is felt acutely in some areas. Charles Michel said he missed the UK’s contributions on economic policy and technology regulation, such as artificial intelligence. The EU has adopted a comprehensive, risk-based AI Act; the UK prefers a lighter-touch, principles-based approach, though the two sides have signed the Council of Europe Framework Convention on AI and are cooperating on safety reports and the EU’s AI factories initiative.
In financial services, UK institutions now rely on time-limited equivalence decisions to access the single market. Only one equivalence decision (on central clearing counterparties) has been granted to Britain, compared with numerous others for the US, Canada and Australia. A Memorandum of Understanding on financial services regulatory cooperation was signed in May 2023, establishing a Joint EU-UK Financial Regulatory Forum that facilitates dialogue on legislative initiatives and regulatory changes. Despite challenges, the UK’s financial sector has remained strong, but the access falls “far short” of pre-Brexit arrangements.
Emissions trading is a brighter spot. The EU and UK have committed to linking their respective emissions trading systems, a step expected to create a more liquid and stable carbon market, reduce costs for businesses and encourage green investments. The linkage could save UK exporters an estimated £800m in EU carbon border taxes; formal negotiations are set to begin in January 2026.
The UK’s diminished standing is reflected in its domestic politics. Support for rejoining the EU has grown, with 50% of UK voters indicating they would vote to be an EU member in a referendum, up from 51% in January 2024 (the research briefing notes the figure “has risen from 51%” – a likely typo, but preserved as given). A closer relationship without full membership is the most supported option among the general public, Leave voters and Conservative voters. Public discontent with the current arrangement is widespread, and support for freedom of movement between the UK and EU stands at around 63% in principle, though it drops when framed as increased immigration.
The two sides will hold a “reset” summit on 22 July, aiming to strike a veterinary deal to ease checks on food and drink, link emissions trading schemes and forge a youth mobility programme. Michael Roth, a self-described “Brexit hawk”, said EU-UK relations were “quite OK – actually better than many expected” because the EU “no longer has to deal with British exceptionalism” inside its institutions.
Yet there is no serious prospect of the UK rejoining. Charles Michel said he expected the EU would react with “a positive spirit” should the UK ever seek to return – “if and when there is the readiness for a serious domestic debate”. He added that it was for the UK to decide whether “global Britain” had made the country more influential, though his personal belief was that the UK was “weaker” than when it was a member. One senior EU diplomat told the Guardian: “On many issues, when the Brits were a part of the EU, we were very like-minded – on the internal market, on free trade, on the transatlantic relationship – and there we miss the UK. But it is a fact of life, so there is no nostalgia.”
