A projected shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050 threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems worldwide, according to a report presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting in Chicago and published in the Lancet. With nearly 100,000 people diagnosed with cancer every day — an annual figure that could rise from 20 million today to 35.3 million by mid-century — the gap between patient need and available staff is widening at an alarming rate. The findings, described as “sobering” by co-author Professor Mark Lawler of Queen’s University Belfast, paint a stark picture: 18.5 million cancer deaths are projected each year by 2050 unless urgent action is taken.
The largest shortfalls will be in nursing, where around 65 million additional workers are required, and in diagnostic roles, which face a deficit of roughly 16 million staff. These gaps are expected to cause severe delays in diagnosis and treatment, eroding the progress made in recent decades. Currently, one in three cancer cases worldwide go undiagnosed, and in parts of Africa the figure reaches 60 per cent. Without a diagnosis, survival rates plummet. The report warns that even high-income countries — where cancer survival rates are predicted to exceed 60 per cent by 2050 — will see their ability to improve outcomes compromised by the workforce crisis.
Global cancer burden on the rise
The workforce crisis unfolds against a predicted 21 per cent increase in cancer incidence, from 165 cases per 100,000 people in 2025 to 200 per 100,000 in 2050. Co-author Dr Peter Kingham, director of Memorial Sloan Kettering’s global cancer research and training programme, attributed much of the rise to demographic change. “Cancer is fundamentally a disease of ageing,” he said. “As global life expectancy rises and conditions such as HIV are managed as chronic rather than terminal illnesses, more people worldwide are living long enough to face a cancer risk. This demographic shift is not a failure — it reflects remarkable progress in global health, but it demands an equally ambitious response in cancer care.”
In the United Kingdom, the trend mirrors the global picture. Between 1993 and 2018, cancer cases in adults aged 35–69 rose by 57 per cent for men and 48 per cent for women, driven largely by increases in prostate, breast, melanoma, liver, oral and kidney cancers. Age-standardised rates grew by an average of 0.8 per cent each year for both sexes. Overall incidence rates have increased by around 15 per cent since the early 1990s, with a further 2 per cent rise in the last decade alone. Projections suggest the UK could see more than 505,000 new cancer cases annually by 2038–2040. One in two people in the UK will be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime, with breast cancer the most common cancer in women, accounting for over 60,000 new cases each year.
Encouragingly, cancer deaths in the 35–69 age group fell by 20 per cent in men and 17 per cent in women over the same period, thanks to advances in prevention, earlier detection and treatment. Age‑standardised mortality rates dropped by 37 per cent in men and 33 per cent in women. Yet these gains are now threatened by severe workforce shortages that risk reversing progress.
Workforce crisis hits home: the UK picture
The UK’s cancer workforce is already under intense strain. A report from the Health and Social Care Committee warned that the absence of a serious plan to tackle staff shortages is jeopardising efforts to improve early diagnosis and survival in England. By 2029, the country faces a projected shortfall of 39 per cent in clinical radiologists and 19 per cent in clinical oncologists. In 2024, the clinical oncology workforce was estimated to be 15 per cent lower than required, with that figure projected to worsen. A survey of heads of service in English cancer centres found that 76 per cent reported patient safety concerns directly linked to workforce shortages. The median age of consultant clinical radiologists leaving the NHS workforce has fallen, with a quarter of leavers now younger than 45 — a trend also seen among consultant clinical oncologists.
The imbalance between rising demand and stagnant supply is stark. Demand for CT and MRI imaging grew by 8 per cent in 2024, while the radiology workforce expanded by only 4.7 per cent, causing diagnostic services to fall further behind. Consequently, more than 74,000 people in England were not treated on time for cancer in 2024. Waiting times targets — which include 75 per cent of patients being told if they have cancer within 28 days of an urgent referral, and 85 per cent beginning treatment within 62 days — are routinely missed. In September 2025, only 73.9 per cent received a diagnosis within 28 days, and just 67.9 per cent started treatment within 62 days. Nine in ten cancer centre leaders reported that workforce shortages caused delays to patients starting treatment.
Solutions and recommendations
The report offers a suite of recommendations to avert disaster. Countries are urged to implement national cancer control plans that embed workforce development, invest in technology, education and retention, expand regional and international partnerships, and provide adequate funding for these long-term efforts. Co-lead author Dr Hedvig Hricak, chair emeritus at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, said: “Our global initiative brings a clear warning: without urgent action to address critical workforce shortages, we risk a cancer crisis unlike anything we’ve seen before. We call for immediate, country-specific strategies, smarter workforce use, task-shifting and AI/digital health adoption, alongside future-ready education and strong, sustainable financing through public-private partnerships.”
Task-shifting — delegating certain clinical tasks to less specialised roles — and the adoption of artificial intelligence are already being trialled in the UK. NHS England is testing AI and robotic tools for lung cancer detection and diagnosis to speed up the process and improve early detection. Research on AI in breast cancer screening has shown it can detect more invasive cancers, reduce false positives and decrease the time spent reading scans, with some AI models matching or exceeding radiologists in accuracy. A new AI research screening platform is being developed to enable NHS trusts to join further trials for faster diagnosis. These technologies could help alleviate pressure on diagnostic staff, but the report stresses they must be part of a broader strategy that includes investing in the human workforce.
Prevention is also central. Dr Kingham emphasised that promoting healthier diets and countering sedentary lifestyles are key. Approximately 40 per cent of cancers are preventable by addressing modifiable risk factors such as smoking, obesity, poor diet and alcohol consumption. In the UK, preventable cancer cases cost the healthcare system an estimated £3.7 billion in 2023. The NHS already runs screening programmes for cervical and bowel cancers and offers HPV vaccination, but the message from the report is that far more needs to be done at a population level.
The economic case for immediate investment is compelling. The report calculates that investing in the cancer workforce now could avert 170 million cancer deaths between 2030 and 2050 and deliver approximately $120 trillion (£89 trillion) in net economic benefits. Professor Lawler said: “The predicted 35 million cancer cases each year globally is in sharp contrast to the projected global shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050. Make no mistake, this is a wake-up call, no matter where you are in the world. What we’ve uncovered is shocking — how can we reconcile a 15 million increase in cancer cases diagnosed with a 100 million decrease in cancer staffing? The data unfortunately do not lie. We can’t wait until 2050 to see if our projections are correct — we must act now.”
