Despite falling crime rates across Western Europe since the mid-1990s, a major new YouGov survey reveals that the overwhelming majority of people in six of the region’s largest economies believe crime is rising in their home countries. The poll, covering Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, found that this perception gap is widest in Italy, where 80% of respondents said crime was increasing, and France, where 78% agreed. Even in Denmark, the country with the lowest share of people holding this view, 53% still thought crime was on the up. In Britain, two-thirds (66%) said the same.
The reality, according to official data from Eurostat and national crime agencies, tells a markedly different story. Homicide rates — widely regarded as the most reliable crime metric because killings are almost always reported — have fallen by between 30% and more than 50% since the late 1990s in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Italy’s annual murder tally has plunged from 1,917 in 1991 to just 327 in 2024, giving it one of the lowest homicide rates in the European Union. France’s murder rate, roughly 2.3 per 100,000 people in 1995, stands at about 1.4 per 100,000 today, even after a string of recent minor increases that have pushed the annual victim count above 1,000 for the first time in two decades. In the UK, homicides fell by 5% to 535 offences in the year ending December 2024, the lowest figure in a decade.
Why the public thinks crime is rising
Experts point to a simple explanation for the disconnect: a surge in high-profile violent incidents, especially those linked to drug trafficking, and increased reporting of sexual and domestic violence have captured media and public attention, effectively eclipsing the long-term general decline. In France, for example, 367 murders and attempted murders related to drug trafficking were recorded in 2024 — a decrease from 418 the previous year, but still a figure that fuels headlines. Marseille, a drug-trafficking hotspot, recorded 49 deaths and 118 wounded from gang rivalry in 2023 alone. Across the region, a significant rise in online fraud has also contributed to a sense of insecurity. Eurobarometer data indicates that one in four people in the EU has fallen victim to online fraud, with fake online shopping the most common type — yet only 15% of victims report it to the police. The reported number of scams across Europe has nearly doubled in the past year.
The result is that while overall crime rates are lower than a generation ago, specific, often violent crimes linked to organised drug networks and the near-universal growth of digital fraud create the impression of a worsening situation. In Britain, for instance, headline crime — theft, robbery and fraud — increased by 14% in the year to December 2024, driven largely by a 33% rise in fraud and a 13% increase in theft. Shoplifting offences hit a 21-year high at 516,971. Yet these increases in recorded crime partly reflect changes in reporting and policing, not a broad return to the violence of the 1990s.
Trust in police: Britain stands apart
Despite the widespread belief that crime is rising, people in most Western European countries retain a high degree of trust in their national police forces. Denmark leads the way, with 74% of respondents saying they have a lot or a fair amount of confidence in the police nationally. In Spain, France, Germany and Italy, between 57% and 64% of people expressed similar trust. Britain, however, is a clear outlier: only 43% of UK respondents said they had confidence in the national police, while 53% said they had little. This divergence may help explain why British concern about rising crime — 66% — is not the highest in the survey, despite the UK’s comparatively low trust in policing.
Country-specific fears: knife crime, drugs, corruption and organised crime
Where public concern is most acute, it tends to focus on types of crime that are particularly salient in each country. In Britain, 60% of respondents said they thought the UK had a uniquely high rate of knife crime, a view shared by 40% of Germans but only between 24% and 30% of people in the other surveyed nations. Official figures for England and Wales show that offences involving knives or sharp instruments rose by 2% to 54,587 in the year ending December 2024, although hospital admissions for assault by a sharp object fell by 10.4% over the same period.
France stands out for its concern about drug trafficking and distribution, with 61% of respondents saying this was more of a problem in their country than elsewhere. A further 42% of French respondents highlighted rioting and public disorder as a particular national issue, compared with between 7% and 21% in the other countries. Germany, meanwhile, recorded a 57.6% increase in economic crime in 2024, while drug-related offences fell by 34.2% — a pattern that may explain why only 23-25% of Germans felt drug trafficking and gang violence was worse in their country.
In Spain and Italy, corruption is the standout concern: 56% of Spanish respondents and 46% of Italians said it was a bigger problem in their country than elsewhere. Spain recorded 2,445,418 criminal offences in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous year, but cybercrime showed a sharp rise, with 412,850 reported cases of online fraud. Italy’s 2.38 million reported crimes in 2024 represented a 1.7% increase, with thefts accounting for 44% of the total. Italians were also the most likely — 41% — to believe their country had a specific problem with organised crime, citing groups such as the Neapolitan Camorra and the Calabrian ’Ndrangheta, compared with 16-32% in other nations.
Denmark, by contrast, appears relatively untroubled. Only 7% of Danes said corruption was a particular problem in their country, and 37% felt crime was lower in Denmark than elsewhere — the only country where a sizeable minority saw their nation as safer. Financial and economic crime was the most commonly cited issue there, and reported crime overall saw a slight decrease in victims in 2024, including falls in violent and sexual offences.
