Chelsea’s hopes of playing in Europe next season hang precariously on the final day of the Premier League campaign, with the Blues locked in a tangled web of permutations that could still deliver either Europa League or Europa Conference League football — or nothing at all.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side cannot qualify for the Champions League, but the two competitions beneath it remain within reach. However, their fate depends not only on their own result away to Sunderland but on the outcomes of three other matches and the final league positions of Aston Villa and Manchester City.
Europa League permutations
To secure a place in the Europa League, Chelsea must finish seventh. That means they need to better Brighton & Hove Albion’s result on Sunday. Brighton currently occupy seventh, one point above Chelsea, and host Manchester United at the Amex Stadium. A win for Fabian Hürzeler’s side would cement their Europa League spot and leave Chelsea relying on a slip-up.
If Chelsea win and Brighton fail to take all three points, Calum McFarlane’s interim side would leapfrog the Seagulls. Even a draw for Chelsea, combined with a heavy Brighton defeat and a favourable swing in goal difference, could be enough — though the margin for error is tight. The complication stems from Aston Villa’s final league position. If Unai Emery’s team finish fifth and win the Europa League, sixth place in the Premier League qualifies for the Champions League and seventh enters the Europa League. If Villa finish fourth, then both sixth and seventh qualify for the Europa League.
That second scenario is complicated by Manchester City’s FA Cup victory. Because Pep Guardiola’s side have already secured a Champions League berth through their league position, the Europa League spot ordinarily awarded to the FA Cup winners is passed down the table. As a result, sixth and seventh places both yield Europa League qualification, while eighth secures a Conference League place.
For Chelsea, the most straightforward path to the Europa League is to overtake Brighton. But the Seagulls are not the only threat. Bournemouth are also in contention for the final Champions League spot, battling Brighton for sixth place. If Brighton win and Bournemouth slip, the Amex side could take sixth, leaving seventh open — but that would only help Chelsea if they also finish above any other challenger.
Conference League permutations
If the Europa League proves out of reach, Chelsea’s fallback is the Europa Conference League. They currently occupy the sole Conference League place available through league position, sitting eighth on 57 points. That spot is far from secure, with Brentford level on points but behind on goal difference and Sunderland three points adrift but capable of leapfrogging the Blues with a victory.
To hold on to eighth, Chelsea must avoid defeat at Sunderland’s Stadium of Light. A draw would be enough only if Brentford fail to win at Anfield against Liverpool. If Chelsea lose, they would need Brentford to also lose, because Sunderland could jump to eighth by beating Chelsea and bettering Brentford’s result. Keith Andrews’ Brentford side cannot simply better Chelsea’s result, because the Blues are playing Sunderland — a direct competitor. If Sunderland beat Chelsea and better Brentford’s result at Liverpool, the Black Cats, managed by Régis Le Bris, would steal eighth.
The safest outcome for Chelsea is to win on Wearside. That would guarantee them at least a Conference League spot, regardless of what Brentford do, because they would finish above both Brentford and Sunderland on points if the Bees also win. But if Chelsea draw and Brentford beat Liverpool, the Bees would leapfrog the Blues into eighth on goal difference or points, depending on the exact scores.
Sunderland, the lowest-placed team still able to finish in the top eight, are the other wildcard. A win for the Black Cats would put them level on points with Chelsea if the Blues lose, and a superior goal difference could push them into eighth — provided Brentford do not also win handsomely.
Team positions and match outcomes
Brighton go into the final day in seventh, one point ahead of Chelsea, with a home fixture against Manchester United. Chelsea travel to Sunderland needing at least a point to stay in contention for the Conference League, and a win to keep alive their Europa League hopes. Brentford travel to Anfield, where they lost 4-1 in their previous meeting with Liverpool in February 2024. Sunderland, under Le Bris, host Chelsea knowing that a victory combined with a Brentford slip would deliver European football to Wearside for the first time in years.
The final day of the 2025-26 season promises high drama. For Chelsea, the margin for error is wafer-thin. A win at Sunderland would guarantee at least the Conference League and keep the Europa League door ajar. A draw would leave them praying Brentford do not win. A defeat would open the door for Sunderland — and end Chelsea’s European ambitions unless the Bees also falter. The permutations are many, but the bottom line is simple: Chelsea must get a result on Wearside.
Xabi Alonso is set to take over as Chelsea manager in the summer, but the team he inherits will be determined by what unfolds this afternoon.
