Leeds United can all but confirm their Premier League survival with victory over relegated Burnley at Elland Road tonight, a result that would take Daniel Farke’s side to 43 points and leave them nine points clear of the bottom three with three games remaining. The equation is straightforward: beat a managerless, demoralised opponent and put the season beyond doubt. Fail to do so, and the anxiety that has crept back into West Yorkshire after last weekend’s FA Cup semi-final defeat could yet turn into a nervy finale.
The contrasting paths of these two clubs since they topped the Championship together last season could scarcely be starker. Twelve months ago, Leeds and Burnley were separated only by goal difference after both accumulated exactly 100 points, securing automatic promotion in a thrilling two-horse race. This season, however, their fortunes have diverged dramatically. Leeds sit 15th with 40 points – twice as many as the Clarets – and are six points above the relegation zone. Burnley, meanwhile, languish in 19th with just 20 points, already condemned to an immediate return to the second tier. For Daniel Farke’s team, a win would all but erase any lingering relegation fears, with trips to Tottenham and West Ham still to follow after tonight.
Team news: Three changes for Leeds, Burnley unchanged under caretaker Jackson
Farke has made three alterations from the side that lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley – Leeds’ first appearance at that stage in 39 years. Karl Darlow starts in goal, with Joe Rodon and Anton Stach coming into the lineup. The trio replace Lucas Berri, the injured Gabriel Gudmundsson and Brenden Aaronson. Gudmundsson suffered a “serious” hamstring injury late in the Wembley defeat and is ruled out for at least the next two matches, including the trip to Spurs. Jaka Bijol (hip flexor) and Noah Okafor (calf) were considered slight doubts but Farke expressed optimism they would be fit. Stach returned ahead of schedule for the semi-final, playing 45 minutes, and the manager believes that run-out will benefit him tonight. Sebastiaan Bornauw, who rolled an ankle before the Bournemouth trip, was an unused substitute at Wembley. Karl Darlow, signed from Newcastle United for £400,000 in the summer of 2023, has established himself as first-choice goalkeeper and Farke has hinted at a contract extension for the 35-year-old.
Burnley are under the temporary charge of Mike Jackson, the former assistant who took over after Scott Parker was dismissed by mutual consent following confirmation of relegation. Jackson has previous caretaker experience at Turf Moor: after Sean Dyche’s departure in April 2022, he secured ten points from his first four matches, earning the Premier League Manager of the Month award. Burnley have already begun the search for a permanent head coach for the 2026-27 season, with Craig Bellamy, the Wales manager and former Burnley coach, and Steven Gerrard among the names mentioned. Jackson has named an unchanged side from the team that lost last weekend.
Burnley’s injury list is lengthy. Josh Cullen has been out since December with an anterior cruciate ligament injury requiring surgery and is expected to miss around nine months. Jordan Beyer remains absent with a meniscus problem and a subsequent hamstring setback, while Connor Roberts has missed the entire season with an Achilles issue.
Farke: ‘No complacency’ despite Burnley’s plight
Farke insisted there is no danger of his side underestimating an opponent who, despite their lowly position, have been competitive in most matches. “There’s definitely no complacency,” he said, speaking before news of Parker’s departure broke. “I’ve got so much respect for Scott. I’d say there’s not one time this season Burnley were played off the field. They’re always very competitive, they’ve had many tight games.”
The German also acknowledged that his own contract situation adds a layer of personal urgency. With around 16 months left on his current deal, club director Peter Lowry recently stated that contract talks were “off the table” while Leeds remained in a relegation battle. However, Farke hopes another three points will persuade the board to extend his tenure. “We want to reward our fans and secure safety as quickly as possible,” he added. “That would be the best message for everyone.”
Burnley have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this season (68), have won only four of their 34 matches and have created the lowest expected goals total in the division. Leeds, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last five league outings and will be confident of exploiting those frailties. Thomas Bramall, the match referee, has issued 82 yellow cards and two reds in 20 Premier League games this season, averaging 4.2 cards per match.
For all the statistical gulf between these two clubs, Farke is not taking anything for granted. “If you look at the table, people think it’s a forgone conclusion,” he said. “But football doesn’t work like that. We have to earn it.”
