The US military is prepared to launch strikes against Iran as soon as this weekend, according to multiple reports citing unnamed sources, as geopolitical jitters send oil prices to a six-month high. The New York Times, CBS News and CNN report that sufficient air and naval resources have been assembled in the Middle East for an attack in the coming days, though President Donald Trump has yet to give a final order.
Senior US national security advisers were told during a White House meeting on Wednesday that all military forces assigned to the region should be in place by mid-March, Reuters reported, citing a senior US official. The Pentagon has begun relocating some personnel from the Middle East to Europe and the US as a precaution against potential retaliation. CBS News noted the timeline for any strike was likely to extend beyond this weekend.
Diplomacy and Deadlines
This military posture unfolds alongside diplomatic efforts. Indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran took place in Geneva on Tuesday, with Iran expected to submit a written proposal on resolving the standoff. US officials stated that Iran is expected to provide more details on its negotiating position in the coming weeks. At a press conference, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt did not specify a deadline for a deal but warned, “Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump.” She described diplomacy as the president’s “first option.”
President Trump has repeatedly demanded Iran cease its nuclear programme and threatened force if no agreement is reached. Discussions in the White House are described as fluid, with a focus on weighing escalation risks. The US military buildup, described as the largest concentration of American air power in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, is intended to allow for sustained operations for several weeks if required. This deployment includes advanced fighter jets like the F-22 and F-35, additional aircraft carriers, refuelling tankers, and missile defence systems.
Iran’s Nuclear Standoff and Economic Crisis
The core of the tension is Iran’s nuclear programme. While Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations in June 2025 for the first time in 20 years. Following Israeli strikes, the US military conducted strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—that same month. Satellite imagery indicates Iran’s uranium enrichment program remains significantly set back, with key facilities severely damaged, though Iran has announced plans to rebuild.
Nuclear experts widely agree Iran has not yet moved towards weaponisation, a process that would take months or years. However, as of May 2024, Iran was producing enriched uranium at 60% purity and installing more advanced centrifuges. The IAEA considers Iran to have enough nuclear material for nine nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%, with its estimated “breakout” time now almost zero.
This external pressure compounds a severe internal economic crisis. Iran’s economy is characterised by high inflation, officially over 48.6% in October 2025, a collapsing currency, and expanding poverty. The Iranian rial has plummeted to over 1.6 million to the US dollar. Poverty rates are estimated between 22% and 50%, with the country facing systemic energy crises and food shortages that have fuelled nationwide protests. US sanctions, reimposed under President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, have severely limited Iran’s oil exports and access to global markets.
Markets React to War Fears
Fears of a confrontation have injected fresh geopolitical risk into global energy markets. Brent crude prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, pushing back above $70 per barrel to their highest level in six months. Analysts note that instability involving a major oil producer places upward pressure on prices due to expected supply disruptions, with markets now pricing in a risk premium.
Joachim Klement, a research analyst at Panmure Liberum, suggested there is a lack of political will in Washington for a protracted campaign for regime change, given Trump’s criticism of past interventions. “Thus, the most likely outcome seems to be another bombing campaign similar to what we saw in 2025 with the goal to further damage Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its military infrastructure or maybe even extract the Ayatollah from the country,” he said. He added that extracting a leader, as seen in Venezuela, may not mean regime change for this administration.
Klement argued that in this scenario of a short intervention without ground troops, Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit, though oil prices would reflect a heightened risk premium for some time.
Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, highlighted wider implications. “Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming in the wake of recent protests in the country, raise the chances of some form of regime change which could eventually pave the way for Iran’s possible reintegration into the global economy,” he said. “More immediately, strikes on Iran would risk causing oil prices to jump and threaten to boost inflation in much of the world, reducing the pace or number of interest rate cuts by major central banks.”
Centrica Pauses Buyback as Profits Plunge
In a separate development, British Gas owner Centrica has paused its share buyback programme after reporting a 39% plunge in full-year adjusted profits. The company said adjusted earnings fell to £1.42bn for 2025, down from £2.3bn the year before, citing a “challenging” year as it undertakes multibillion-pound investments. The result was slightly ahead of average analyst forecasts of £1.3bn.
CEO Chris O’Shea said the pause would enable the company to prioritise investments that create “lasting value for shareholders,” pointing to major projects like Sizewell C, Grain LNG, and its Meter Asset Provider scheme. He conceded performance had varied across the business, but noted customer growth across all retail businesses simultaneously for the first time in over a decade.
The company’s retail arm, which includes British Gas, saw underlying operating profits slip 7% to £424m. Milder weather meant households used less energy, though customer numbers grew by 1% to almost 8 million accounts. The performance was far tougher in the group’s trading arm, Centrica Energy, which fell well short of prior guidance. The division, which profits from buying and storing gas when prices are low to sell later, was hit by lower commodity prices and reduced volatility. Its performance is expected to remain subdued through 2026.
Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted the strain from heavy investment. “Centrica’s also investing heavily to build out its renewable energy infrastructure and extend the life of its nuclear assets,” he said. “Results aren’t going to come cheap or quickly, though, with between £600m-800m per year set to be invested in the transition out to 2028, which could put a strain on cash flows if returns aren’t as high or quick as planned.” The company’s profits were also eroded by outages in the UK’s nuclear reactor fleet and geopolitical volatility affecting energy trading.
Shareholders reacted sharply to the news, sending Centrica shares down as much as 9.5% in early trading, making it the worst performer on the FTSE 100 by a significant margin. The broader European market opened in the red, with the FTSE 100 down 0.3%, Germany’s DAX down 0.33%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.2%, and Spain’s IBEX down 0.16%.
