Voters in Gorton and Denton go to the polls on Thursday, 26 February 2026, in a parliamentary by-election that has become a critical litmus test for Keir Starmer’s leadership and a volatile three-way battle for a seat Labour has held for decades.
A Seat Vacated by Scandal
The contest was triggered by the resignation of the former Labour MP, Andrew Gwynne, on 22 January 2026, who cited ill health. His departure followed his suspension from the Labour Party in February 2025 after an investigation into offensive messages he reportedly sent in a WhatsApp group. According to the investigation, the messages, exchanged between 2019 and 2022, included racist, sexist, and antisemitic remarks, as well as jokes about constituents and fellow politicians. Gwynne had represented the area since 2005, previously as the MP for Denton and Reddish.
The Main Contenders in a Crowded Field
Eleven parties are fielding candidates, but the race is centred on a tight fight between Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK. Labour’s candidate is Manchester city councillor Angeliki Stogia. Her selection was contentious, coming after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing by the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), a move that has reportedly angered some Labour backbenchers and voters. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has framed the election as a “straight fight” between Labour and Reform UK.
Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, has been campaigning in the constituency for months in anticipation of the vote. The Green Party is represented by Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and former plumber who previously stood in the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Other notable candidates include Charlotte Cadden for the Conservatives, Dan Clarke for the Libertarian Party, Sebastian Moore for the Social Democratic Party, and Nick Buckley MBE for Advance UK.
A Statistical Dead Heat
Recent polling paints a picture of a highly competitive and unpredictable contest. An Omnisis poll from February 2026 placed the Greens narrowly ahead on 33%, with Reform UK on 29% and Labour on 26%, with 27% of voters undecided. A contemporaneous Opinium poll suggested a statistical three-way tie, putting the Greens and Labour both on 28% and Reform on 27%. Among those most likely to vote, the Opinium poll gave the Greens a slight lead of 30% to 28% for both Labour and Reform, and indicated that voters seeking to block Reform were more inclined to switch to the Greens than to Labour.
Other surveys present a similarly tight race. A FindOutNow poll from January 2026 suggested Reform UK might win with 30% of the vote, against Labour’s 27% and the Greens’ 17%, though the Labour Party has cited another FindOutNow poll showing them just three points behind Reform. Analysis from Electoral Calculus has predicted a Reform UK victory with a 59% probability.
National Stakes for a Struggling Labour Leader
The outcome is seen as a significant moment for Keir Starmer, whose approval ratings are at historically low levels. A loss in this traditionally safe seat could intensify pressure on his leadership, with some Labour MPs reportedly hoping for a defeat to force his resignation. The Labour Party has seen its support decline since the 2024 general election, with voters moving to both Reform UK and the Green Party, leaving it concerned about being “squeezed from both sides”.
The blocking of Andy Burnham’s candidacy has fuelled speculation that it was a strategic move by Starmer to prevent a potential leadership challenge from the popular mayor. For Reform UK, a strong performance will be scrutinised as an indicator of their national appeal, while tactical voting to prevent a Reform victory is expected to play a crucial role.
A Constituency of Two Halves
The demographic split within the constituency of 119,094 people helps explain the fractured political landscape. The Manchester wards are diverse, with a non-white population of around 60%, a Muslim community of approximately 40%, and a high proportion of university students and graduates (around 42%)—a profile seen as more receptive to the Green Party. Conversely, the Tameside wards in Denton are predominantly white (around 83%), with a high percentage of UK-born, working-class residents who are being actively targeted by Reform UK’s campaign.
As the electorate prepares to vote, Guardian Northern Editor Helen Pidd, based in Manchester, has been meeting the candidates and speaking to voters, finding a tightly run and heated race with strong feelings on all sides. The result will not only choose a new MP but could redefine the political battleground in the North of England and beyond.
