As US forces prepared for what their Defence Secretary called the “most intense day of strikes” yet inside Iran, a contradictory picture of the eleven-day-old Middle East war emerged on Tuesday: one of escalating military action alongside tentative signals that Washington may be seeking an off-ramp.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Pentagon briefing that operations on 10 March would represent a significant intensification. “Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran,” he stated. However, he simultaneously noted that Iran itself had fired its lowest number of weapons in the past 24 hours.
Military objectives and casualties
Outlining the campaign’s goals, General Dan Caine said the joint US-Israel force remained focused on destroying Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, degrading its navy, and preventing future attacks “for years to come.” He claimed significant progress, stating: “Ballistic missile attacks continue to trend downwards, down 90% from when we started.” The US military has already struck over 3,000 Iranian targets since the conflict began.
The human cost continues to mount. General Caine paid tribute to seven American service members who have died. In Lebanon, the health ministry reported 486 deaths and 1,313 injuries from Israeli attacks. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said over 667,000 people in Lebanon are now registered as displaced, with 100,000 added in just the past day. Many are fleeing north or into Syria, with Syrian authorities reporting over 78,000 crossings.
Regional fallout and diplomatic shifts
The conflict’s ripple effects were felt across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry reported its forces intercepted eight missiles and 26 drones on Tuesday, with one missile falling into the sea and nine drones landing on its territory. Since the war began, UAE air defences have identified a staggering 262 ballistic missiles and 1,475 drones heading toward its territory. These attacks have killed six people and injured 122 in the UAE.
Despite the ongoing barrages, life in Dubai showed signs of uneasy normalcy, with commercial flights resuming and residents adapting. “They say it’s a war but it’s caused no problem for us, we don’t really see it at all,” said one Egyptian expatriate. For stranded tourists like Trish Patton from Glasgow, the experience was more harrowing. “It’s been very surreal and very scary at times,” she said, after finally securing a flight home.
The security fears have prompted a diplomatic exodus from Tehran. Denmark and the Netherlands announced they were temporarily relocating embassy staff to Baku, Azerbaijan, following similar moves by Spain, Austria, and Italy. “Due to the growing security risks for our employees, it has been decided to temporarily transfer the activities of the Dutch embassy in Iran to Baku,” said Dutch foreign minister Tom Berendsen.
Leadership, espionage, and environmental claims
Inside Iran, the situation appears increasingly opaque. The country’s state television has referred to the newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, as a “wounded war veteran” of the conflict, confirming he has been injured. He has not been seen publicly since the war began, with speculation his injuries—and the reported deaths of his wife and child—occurred on the first day.
Iran’s intelligence ministry announced the arrest of 30 people accused of spying, including one foreign national who, it claimed, was “spying on behalf of two Persian Gulf countries in the name of the American-Zionist enemy.”
Tehran also launched a diplomatic complaint over the environmental impact of the bombing. In a letter to the UN, Iran’s ambassador, Saeed Iravani, accused the US and Israel of a “manifest environmental crime” for strikes on fuel storage facilities, which he said caused acid rain and severe air pollution, placing all medical facilities in Tehran province on high alert.
Lebanon escalation and international warnings
The conflict’s second front in Lebanon intensified. The Israeli military launched a warning strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs and reiterated evacuation orders for areas south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has continued its rocket attacks, launching approximately 100 toward Israel on Saturday alone, and stating its actions are responses to Israeli strikes.
The prospect of a wider ground invasion drew sharp international concern. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares warned that an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon would be a “tremendous” mistake, while announcing €9 million in humanitarian aid for Beirut. Spain had previously provided significant aid to Lebanon, including €5.5 million and over 12 tonnes of supplies in 2024.
Contradictory signals on war and peace
The strategic picture is marked by contrasting statements. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the war will end “very soon,” and on Monday suggested it was “very complete, pretty much.” He added, however, that “we haven’t won enough,” and vowed not to stop until Iran was “totally and decisively defeated.” He also indicated that some “most important” targets, like Iran’s electrical grid, were being held in reserve.
There is also ambiguity over ultimate aims. While Secretary Hegseth stated the conflict was not for regime change, President Trump has expressed a desire for it. On the prospect of talks, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was dismissive, citing a “very bitter experience.” President Trump, however, told Fox News that peace talks were possible “depending on the terms.”
The economic front saw significant movement. With oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, President Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease shortages—a move analysts say could complicate efforts to pressure Russia over Ukraine. This followed a threat from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to block the Strait of Hormuz, to which Trump responded with a vow to hit Iran “20 times harder.”
As the eleventh day of conflict closed, the path forward remained fraught. With the US promising its heaviest strikes yet, but its president talking of an end, the region and the world are left weighing fierce military action against uncertain diplomatic horizons.
