Middle East tensions weigh on Trainline revenue outlook
Trainline has said that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are hitting its revenues, with the rail ticket sales platform warning that sales to foreign visitors to Europe have been affected. The UK-based international ticketing agent said it expected revenues to remain flat or decline over the coming year, citing “the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe”. The company now forecasts sales of between £440m and £455m for the financial year ending February 28, 2027 – a forecast that falls below the analyst consensus of £453m.
How Middle East conflict is hitting air travel and Trainline’s sales
The standoff between the US and Iran, described by Trainline as a “US-Israel war on Iran”, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for global oil transit – and subsequent blockades. Airlines worldwide have been forced to cancel thousands of flights, with estimates suggesting around 13,000 fewer services in May 2026 alone. Major airports including Istanbul, Munich and London Heathrow have cut services, with Heathrow removing 111 flights from its May schedule. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the conflict began, and Europe faces a potential risk of jet fuel shortages as soon as June 2026 if supplies from the Middle East remain constrained. Reserve jet fuel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub are at their lowest in five years.
Carriers have been rerouting flights away from conflict zones, leading to longer flight paths, increased fuel consumption and higher operating costs. Air France-KLM anticipates spending an additional $2.4bn on fuel in 2026. Korean Air has entered emergency management, while Philippines Airlines has fuel secured only through June. The upheaval has created considerable consumer uncertainty around summer travel plans, with travellers prioritising reliability and flexibility and often paying premiums for changeable bookings. Airlines are reporting later bookings as a result.
Long-haul travellers are shifting away from Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, routing through Asian and European transit points. Spain and Portugal are experiencing a surge in bookings, perceived as safe havens: flight bookings to Spain rose 32% by early April 2026 compared with the previous year. Conversely, destinations such as Cyprus and parts of Greece are seeing slower bookings due to a “regional risk halo” and route disruptions. Specific airline responses include Aegean Airlines resuming some flights to Tel Aviv, Beirut, Riyadh and Amman but cancelling others; Air France-KLM suspending flights to various Middle Eastern destinations; British Airways reducing flights to the Middle East, permanently dropping Jeddah and planning to cut services to Dubai, Doha and Riyadh; Lufthansa Group suspending flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai, with additional suspensions for Amman, Beirut, Dammam, Riyadh, Erbil, Muscat and Tehran; and Emirates and Etihad operating to a reduced number of destinations.
This disruption to inbound air traffic into Europe directly affects Trainline’s sales to foreign visitors, who form a significant part of its international consumer segment. The company noted that the geopolitical tensions had added to earlier headwinds from UK ticketing policy.
Strong financial performance but cautious outlook
Despite the headwinds, Trainline reported robust results for the year ending February 28, 2026. Revenue rose 2% to £453m, operating profits jumped 43% to £122m and pre-tax profit shot up 41% to £114.3m. Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% to £177m, and net ticket sales climbed 7% to £6.32bn. Jody Ford, the outgoing chief executive, described the year as “a year of strong delivery with record net ticket sales and revenue, and continued double-digit growth in profitability”.
However, the cautious revenue forecast for the coming year – £440m–£455m – prompted a sharp reaction in the markets. Trainline shares fell about 8% in early trading before recovering to close about 1% lower. On May 6, 2026, shares dropped a further 7.1% to 222.40 pence, making Trainline the worst performer on the FTSE 250 that day. Over the past year the stock has underperformed the FTSE All Share Index by 33.09%.
Future strategy: UK policy challenges and European growth
Trainline’s primary revenues remain UK-based, but the company faces significant headwinds from British government policy. The government has frozen rail fares and indicated it would set up its own ticketing website under the planned Great British Railways. In addition, the expansion of contactless payment systems in London and other cities is projected to directly reduce Trainline’s UK consumer net ticket sales by approximately £150m annually by cutting third-party commissions. Trainline said it is “working closely with government to deliver on its commitment to deliver a fair and open regulatory framework” ahead of the creation of GBR online retail. The company strongly welcomed the recent decision to open delay repay to independent retailers, calling it “our customers’ No 1 ask”.
Internationally, Trainline is targeting further growth in Italy and France, where greater competition among operators on long-distance routes is expanding the ticketing market. The company remains Europe’s most downloaded rail app, with a total active customer base of 27 million, including 18 million UK customers and 2.7 million digital railcard holders. It is leveraging artificial intelligence, launching AI-powered rail disruption features and integrating its app into ChatGPT. Its Trainline Solutions segment, which provides travel portal platforms, was the fastest-growing business unit in FY2026, with net ticket sales growing 14% to surpass £1bn, driven by significant growth in B2B distribution in Europe. Trainline expects its international consumer segment to break even in FY2027, a significant development.
Jody Ford noted that “ahead of the creation of GBR online retail in the UK, we are working closely with government to deliver on its commitment to deliver a fair and open regulatory framework.” The company’s adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net ticket sales is expected to improve to around 2.9% in FY2027 from 2.8% in FY2026.
