Rain and Thunderstorm Warnings Issued
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the UK as the country braces for a week of sharply contrasting weather, with immediate alerts for flooding giving way to a potential return of near-30°C heat by the weekend.
The Met Office has issued a yellow rain warning for central Scotland, in force from 2pm until 9pm on Tuesday. The alert warns of temporary flooding, with some areas expected to see 20mm of rain within an hour. In isolated locations, 30-40mm could fall over two to three hours, and thunder is possible with the heaviest downpours.
Simultaneously, a yellow thunderstorm warning covers all counties of Northern Ireland except Fermanagh from midday until 6pm on Tuesday. The Met Office forecasts hail, frequent lightning and localised flooding. Some places may receive 10-15mm of rain in less than an hour, and up to 25-30mm in two to three hours. Potential impacts include travel disruption from spray and standing water, longer journey times for cars and buses, delays to train services, damage from lightning strikes, short-term power outages, and flooding of homes and businesses.
Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon described the transition as “a bit of an abrupt transition for some.” He added: “Through the day today, more unsettled weather, particularly in northern and western areas.”
On Wednesday, rain is expected to arrive from the west and move eastwards across Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England, while the south of the UK remains drier. Thursday could bring outbreaks of showers in southern England, but many places will see a largely dry day with sunny spells. Friday is predicted to be largely dry, although western Scotland and Northern Ireland may see some showers.
Weekend Heatwave on the Horizon
The early part of the weekend is forecast to bring rain to the North West, while the South stays fairly dry. High pressure is expected to build across England and Wales, bringing dry and warm conditions with plenty of sunshine. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see more cloud and periods of rain, particularly in western Scotland.
According to the Met Office, there could be another warm spell on the way, especially in the South, with weekend temperatures forecast to hit the high 20s or low 30s Celsius. Mr Dixon said: “What’s looking likely into next week is that high pressure to remain largely dominant in the South, staying into the high 20s and low 30s in parts of England.” It is possible that some areas could meet the three-day heatwave criteria, though the forecaster stressed it is unlikely to be as hot as the previous week.
Temperature Details and Recent Records
Temperatures in the South will remain in the low to mid-20s Celsius this week before climbing into the high 20s or early 30s over the weekend and into next week. London is forecast to reach 29°C by Sunday 5 July and potentially 31°C by Monday 6 July, while Edinburgh’s maximum temperature is expected to be around 20-21°C over the same period. Pollen levels in London are noted as “Very High” for the coming week.
The current forecast follows a week of extreme heat. The UK set a provisional new June temperature record of 37.7°C at Lingwood in Norfolk on Friday 27 June, beating the 37.3°C recorded at Santon Downham in Suffolk on the same day. That figure surpasses the previous June record of 35.6°C dating back to 1976 by more than 2°C – a significant margin given such records have usually been broken by only a fraction of a degree. Scientists have warned that the recent heatwave would have been virtually impossible 50 years ago, attributing the increased intensity and frequency of extreme heat events to human-driven climate change. The heatwave caused widespread disruption, including school closures, critical incidents declared by hospitals, train cancellations and a hosepipe ban in Kent.
A UK heatwave is defined as a period of at least three consecutive days where daily maximum temperatures meet or exceed a specific threshold, which varies by county from 25°C to 28°C. While some areas may reach that criteria this weekend, the Met Office expects temperatures to fall short of the extremes seen last week.
