Sir John Major has claimed that Brexit has cost the UK £100bn annually in trade, delivering a stark verdict on the tenth anniversary of the referendum that reshaped Britain’s relationship with Europe. The former Conservative prime minister, speaking to The Independent’s editor-in-chief Geordie Greig for the newspaper’s “Europe: The Way Back” campaign, said the economic damage amounted to a £40bn annual hit to tax revenues. His figures go beyond official forecasts: research from the House of Commons Library estimates that Brexit is costing the Treasury up to £90bn a year in lost tax revenue – roughly £250m every day. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects a long-term 4% reduction in GDP, while more recent studies, including work from the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggest the UK’s economy is between 6% and 8% smaller than it would otherwise have been, leaving the average Briton between £2,700 and £3,700 worse off.
The trade picture has worsened significantly since 2019. UK goods exports to the EU were 14% lower in 2025 in real terms, and overall the UK recorded a trade deficit of £88bn with the bloc last year. Economists estimate goods exports are running 10–15% below their potential level. Since the referendum, the UK has experienced the largest fall in goods export volumes of any G7 economy. The economic benefits of trade deals struck outside Europe are considered tiny by comparison. The OBR has also concluded that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU will reduce long-run productivity by 4% relative to remaining in the bloc. Business investment has lagged behind other advanced economies, and the UK’s GDP growth has trailed G7 peers in recent years.
Major calls for UK to rejoin single market within five years
Sir John urged the UK to rejoin the single market within the next five years, arguing that young people in particular would lead the drive to restore closer ties with Europe. His comments formed part of The Independent’s campaign, launched to mark the referendum’s tenth anniversary, which aims to explore ways to rebuild Britain’s relationship with Europe – covering trade, investment, security, scientific collaboration, migration and opportunities for young people. The campaign will include reporting, analysis, reader debate, newsletters, polls, podcasts and video, going beyond Westminster to communities affected by Brexit.
Criticism of Farage and Reform UK, praise for Badenoch
Sir John criticised Nigel Farage over a lack of transparency surrounding a £5m donation to Reform UK. The donation, from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne – who has given more than £25m to the party – has faced scrutiny. Labour has asked the Financial Conduct Authority to investigate whether Farage’s public statements on cryptocurrencies may have benefited the donor. Farage has insisted the donation was unconditional and a private matter, though he acknowledged the standards commissioner might take a different view. Sir John also slammed Reform’s negative politics and warned that some political donations risk making parties a “wholly-owned subsidiary of foreign money.” He called for a crackdown on misconduct and a refresh of protections.
Reform UK is described as a right-wing populist and far-right party with a hardline stance on immigration, tax cuts and traditional British values. It has seen a surge in polls, especially among older voters and Leave supporters. Sir John has previously said the Conservative Party shares responsibility for Reform’s rise because of internal disputes and poor crisis management.
By contrast, Sir John praised Kemi Badenoch for her leadership of the Conservative Party, predicting she would grow into “an absolutely excellent leader.” Badenoch, currently Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Conservatives, has held ministerial roles including Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Minister for Women and Equalities.
Burnham not ready for world stage, says Major
Sir John expressed concern that Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and a Labour MP for Makerfield, was not ready for politics on the world stage – despite being described as a “prime minister-in-waiting.” Burnham is a candidate for the Labour Party leadership and has been vocally pro-Remain, hoping to see Britain rejoin the EU in his lifetime. However, he has also argued that re-running the Brexit referendum would be a divisive mistake. The former prime minister’s warning about Burnham’s global readiness adds a pointed note to the discussion of the UK’s future direction, as the tenth anniversary of the vote that set the country on its current course approaches.
