Conservative Party Chairman Kevin Hollinrake has declared that Sir Keir Starmer is “on the ropes” and could be gone “within a couple of weeks”, after the Prime Minister survived a Commons vote to block a sleaze probe into his handling of the Peter Mandelson affair.
Hollinrake’s prediction
Speaking to GB News, Mr Hollinrake said the Prime Minister’s time was “nearly up” and that he would be gone “in the coming weeks”. He pointed to Tuesday’s vote in which MPs backed the government by 335 to 223 against referring the matter to the Privileges Committee, arguing that the government had “used their majority to the best effect” but that the episode revealed a leader under severe pressure.
“This shows a Prime Minister that’s on the ropes and his time is nearly up,” Mr Hollinrake told the broadcaster. “We’re not sure when he’ll go, but he’ll go. I think in the coming weeks.” His remarks echo a private assessment reportedly made in February by Christian Turner, the UK’s current ambassador to the US, who described Starmer as being “on the ropes” over the scandal.
The sleaze probe vote
The Conservative motion sought to have the Privileges Committee investigate whether Sir Keir had misled Parliament over the vetting and appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. The vote came just one week before key local elections in May, which the government is expected to face as a difficult test.
Despite the government whip being applied, 15 Labour MPs voted in favour of the investigation, defying the party line. Among those rebels were prominent figures including John McDonnell and Rebecca Long Bailey. A further 53 Labour MPs abstained from the vote. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Labour MPs of participating in a “cover-up” and said they would “rue the day” they voted against the inquiry. She further claimed that Sir Keir had “begged” his MPs to “save his own skin”.
A Downing Street spokesperson dismissed the Conservative motion as a “desperate political stunt” ahead of the local elections, arguing that the government’s focus remained on the cost of living and the NHS. Sir Keir himself insisted that “due process” was followed in Mandelson’s appointment and that he was not aware of the full extent of Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein until later.
The Mandelson scandal has proved a significant blow to the Prime Minister’s authority. Lord Mandelson was appointed UK ambassador to the US in February 2025 but was dismissed in September 2025 after revelations emerged about his continued association with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, which had been reported as early as 2019. It later emerged that UK Security Vetting (UKSV) had recommended against granting Mandelson security clearance in January 2025, but that officials in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) reportedly overruled that recommendation. Sir Keir has stated he was unaware of that override until April 2026.
The accusations against the Prime Minister centre on his claim that “full due process” was followed and that no pressure was put on Foreign Office officials. However, Sir Olly Robbins, the former top civil servant in the FCDO, testified that there was “constant pressure” from Downing Street to expedite Mandelson’s appointment. Further allegations emerged in February 2026 that Mandelson and his husband received payments from Epstein, and that Mandelson passed sensitive government information to Epstein in 2009 and 2010. The Metropolitan Police have since launched a criminal investigation into allegations of misconduct in public office. Mandelson resigned from the Labour Party and the House of Lords in February 2026.
The investigation into Sir Keir has drawn comparisons to the Privileges Committee inquiry into former Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Partygate, which contributed to his downfall. Some Labour MPs have warned that Sir Keir is “running out of political capital” and is in the “last-chance saloon”.
Mr Hollinrake also criticised the Labour whips for blocking “Government business from going through”, declaring it “complete nonsense”. “For weeks on end for the last year, we’ve seen day after day of Parliament that we’ve had one line whips, which mean there’s no Government business going through,” he said. He argued that the opposition was merely holding the Prime Minister to the same standard he had applied to previous prime ministers.
The Conservative chairman also turned his attention to the potential return of Angela Rayner to the Cabinet. Ms Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister on 5 September 2025 after an investigation by the Prime Minister’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, Laurie Magnus, found she had breached the ministerial code over a tax dispute. She had allegedly underpaid stamp duty by £40,000 on an £800,000 flat purchased in Hove, after removing her name from the deeds of her constituency residence, and had made inconsistent primary residence declarations. She admitted an error and referred herself to the adviser. Mr Hollinrake questioned what “price” Sir Keir would pay to bring her back, including rumoured changes to the Home Office. “One thing we do not want to see is the price of that, which it’s been rumoured is to get rid of their Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood,” he said, despite acknowledging that Ms Mahmood had introduced “decent plans” on illegal migration. “I wonder what the price of Angela Rayner coming back into the cabinet will be, and we think that’ll be a price. That price is far too high and would be against the interest of the country,” he added.
Cost of living and parliamentary time
When pressed by GB News host Ellie Costello on whether the sleaze probe vote was a “waste of Parliamentary time” for Britons “struggling to put food on the table”, Mr Hollinrake acknowledged the concern. “I understand those issues, the cost of living is definitely the biggest issue that people have on the plate right now,” he said. He claimed the Conservatives had offered the Prime Minister the opportunity to work with them on a “cheap power plan” that could cut people’s energy bills by 20 per cent, get drilling in the North Sea and cancel the scheduled rising fuel duty this autumn. “But the Prime Minister keeps blanking us completely, he won’t work with us on those kind of things,” Mr Hollinrake added. “We believe we need a new Prime Minister, and we are just holding the Prime Minister to the same standard he yielded the other prime ministers to.”
