Political fragmentation in Britain provokes rebellion against the establishment, argues The Guardian

Reform UK’s seizure of the Tory stronghold of Essex – the home territory of the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch – has confirmed that political fragmentation is no longer a distant prospect but a present reality. Thursday’s ballots, in which almost two-thirds of the British electorate were entitled to vote, produced a map splintered in ways that would have been unthinkable a quarter of a century ago. Labour and the Conservatives both suffered heavy losses in their traditional bastions. The Greens wrested mayoral power from Labour in London’s Hackney and Lewisham. Plaid Cymru routed Labour in the Welsh Senedd. And Reform UK not only took Essex but also captured Sunderland council from Labour after 50 years of control. Politics since the turn of the century has been upended.

The scale of the Conservative rout was stark. The party lost more than 450 council seats and retained control of only six councils. Its sole mayoral success was the re-election of Ben Houchen as Tees Valley Mayor. Labour, by contrast, gained a net 186 seats, won mayoral races in the East Midlands and York & North Yorkshire, and saw Richard Parker seize the West Midlands Combined Authority from Andy Street. Yet Labour’s gains came alongside heavy defeats in places it had long dominated. The Green Party achieved its best-ever local election results, picking up ten seats in Bristol City Council and further gains in Hastings, Norwich and South Tyneside. The Liberal Democrats added control of Tunbridge Wells and Dorset councils and have now accumulated more than 750 extra council seats over the last five years. Reform UK, though underperforming nationally, secured two seats on Havant Borough Council. Nigel Farage hailed the preliminary results as “an historic change in British politics”, declaring that the “Left-Right divide” was gone. The Workers Party of Britain won four seats and the Women’s Equality Party took its first borough seat.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the Senedd with 43 seats, ending more than a century of Labour dominance. Reform UK came second with 34 seats, pushing Welsh Labour into third place with just nine seats. The Welsh First Minister, Eluned Morgan, lost her own seat and resigned as leader – the first leader of a UK government to lose their seat while in office. The Welsh Greens entered the Senedd for the first time, winning two seats. In Scotland, Labour’s Anas Sarwar conceded a “disastrous result”, described as potentially the party’s worst under devolution. Sarwar said his party had failed to “overcome a national wave” of dissatisfaction with politics. Reform UK was set to become Holyrood’s second largest party.

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A revolt against the system

These results expose an electorate deeply alienated not just from the government or the opposition but from the entire political system. Voters have demanded change in recent elections and concluded that neither Labour nor the Conservatives are capable of delivering it. The beneficiaries are increasingly parties offering, in rhetoric perhaps more than substance, a break from the status quo. Ominously, Reform UK’s politics of grievance and division has proved successful in post-industrial “red wall” areas – such as Sunderland – as well as in the leafy shires where it is preferred by Leave voters. The party is attracting working-class voters, older voters and some wealthier former Conservative supporters, with key concerns including immigration, globalisation and Net Zero policies. It is seen as a protest vote against the establishment.

At the same time, urban England – from Manchester to Waltham Forest – saw Labour losing ground to the Greens. The Green Party’s surge is linked to the same disillusionment, with supporters sharing frustrations about the economic status quo even if their proposed solutions differ sharply from Reform UK’s. A crisis of economic confidence and declining voter turnout underpin this shift. Non-voters are more likely to have voted Leave, to be from working-class occupations and to rent their accommodation. Sky News’ vote share analysis points to a plausible Tory–Reform alliance, and while leaders such as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage have publicly denied wanting such a pact, discussions are reportedly happening in Westminster. Some Conservative MPs believe their party may eventually need to “prop up a Reform government”. Reform UK’s electoral map, with many of its strong second-place finishes in seats held by Labour, complicates any potential pact.

Leadership in question

The prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, was on the ballot paper and was roundly rejected by voters. He acknowledged that people had “sent a message that the change that we promised isn’t being delivered in a way they can feel”. Change exists, he insisted, but people do not perceive it. The risk is that such a message patronises voters – or, at worst, gaslights them. These elections suggest that disappointment with Starmer has already curdled into cynicism. He says he will fight the next election as Labour leader. Prime ministers rarely concede early, fearful that their authority drains away. Tony Blair in 2006 did acknowledge that he would not contest another election, yet remained prime minister for almost another year while retaining substantial power; Gordon Brown took over with little rancour because New Labour agreed on its governing project and there was only one successor. In rejecting an “orderly transition” today, Labour high command exposes how divided it is over what a post-Starmer party would look like.

If defeating Reform UK mattered more than protecting his own position, Sir Keir would be sending Labour’s most popular politician – the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham – to parliament, not sidelining him. Burnham has served as mayor since 2017, winning re-election in 2021 and 2024 with significant vote shares, and previously held senior ministerial roles including Health Secretary. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, warned in February that Starmer had become an electoral liability. After his own disaster in Holyrood, Sarwar conceded defeat but confirmed he would remain leader, aiming to “hold it together”. Labour MPs may conclude that now is not the time to change captain. But that argument is unlikely to impress an electorate that believes the government has failed to change course.