Labour is braced for a set of local election results that could define the next phase of Keir Starmer’s prime ministership or hasten its end, with party strategists predicting close to 2,000 seats lost across England, Wales and Scotland. The damage, however, may be worse than the headline number. The greater danger for the prime minister lies not in the scale of the defeat but in where those losses fall and which voters turn elsewhere.
Expected losses and the scale of the blow
Internal projections put Labour’s net loss of councillors at around 1,900, a figure that would represent one of the party’s worst local election performances. According to polling data, Labour’s projected national vote share stands at 34 %, a decline of one percentage point. The party did secure outright majorities in a number of councils — including Hartlepool, Thurrock and Milton Keynes — and won the newly created mayoralties of the East Midlands Combined County Authority and the York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority. Richard Parker also captured the West Midlands Combined Authority mayoralty from the Conservatives. Yet these gains are overshadowed by losses in areas the party had long considered safe. In Wales, Labour’s vote share is projected to fall by more than half, potentially pushing the party into third place. In Scotland, the long-term decline of Labour support continues, with the Scottish National Party expected to remain in power and Reform UK headed for second place.
Voter demographics and the shifting landscape
The fragility of Labour’s electoral coalition has become starkly apparent. Three distinct demographic shifts are driving the losses, each pulling voters in a different direction. The first is the surge of Reform UK, which is capitalising on public anger over immigration, living standards and a general distrust of Westminster. Reform UK voters are more likely than supporters of any other party to name immigration as a top local issue, and they also cite council tax as a particular concern. The party’s campaign slogan — “Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out” — has resonated strongly. Reform UK is projected to gain 2,260 seats across England, tripling its local representation. Its support has surged despite Labour having adopted tougher anti-immigrant stances in an attempt to mimic Reform’s policy positions; evidence suggests this strategy has not translated into electoral advantage.
The second shift is occurring on Labour’s left flank. In progressive cities, the Green Party is punishing Labour from the left, campaigning on cost of living, housing, public services and wealth inequality. The Greens recorded their best ever local election result, gaining 74 seats. In London, polling suggests the party could win up to nine councils, including in Labour strongholds, and is projected to achieve the highest vote share in Hackney. The party missed winning a majority in Bristol City Council by just two seats. Nationally, the Green vote share stands at 13 %, an increase of one point.
The third demographic change is the rise of independent candidates, particularly in areas with large Muslim populations, where anger over Labour’s stance on the Gaza conflict has crystallised. In parts of Blackburn, Birmingham and east London, independents are capitalising on this discontent. In the July 2024 general election four pro-Palestine independent candidates won seats, and Jeremy Corbyn was re-elected as an independent. In the local elections, the phenomenon of successful anti-establishment independent politicians emerged on a large scale. Labour’s vote share fell significantly in wards with a high percentage of Muslim residents. The Redbridge Independents in east London have directly challenged Labour over Gaza and the Iran war.
The combined effect of these shifts is a Labour vote that is being squeezed from both right and left, while independents peel away a third segment. The party’s approval rating has plummeted since the landslide general election victory in July 2024, and its voter coalition is now seen as critically fragile. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, have added more council seats than any other party over the past parliament — gaining over 750 in five years, largely in southern England. In these elections they gained 104 seats, taking control of Tunbridge Wells and Dorset councils, and their projected national vote share is 17 % (down three points). The Conservatives have suffered their worst local election defeat since 1996, losing over 450 seats and retaining control of only six councils. Their only mayoral success was the re‑election of Ben Houchen as Tees Valley Mayor. The Conservative national approval rating has fallen to between 17 % and 19 %.
Regional impacts and the threat to Labour’s historic bases
The consequences of these results are particularly acute in Wales and Scotland, where Labour has relied on decades of loyal support. In Wales, Labour has dominated politics for a century, but polling now suggests it could come third in the Senedd elections, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru vying for first place. Plaid Cymru has jumped ahead in predicted vote share for the devolved parliament. In Scotland, Labour’s long-term decline continues; the SNP is expected to remain in power while Reform UK moves into second place. Huge losses in both nations could trigger a deep political crisis within Labour, given the party’s historic dependence on these voters.
In England, the battlegrounds are varied. Labour is expected to win comfortably in Red Wall seats, but the Conservatives are closely watching Reform UK’s vote share in those areas. In the Thames Estuary — Harlow, Thurrock and Basildon — Labour had hoped for gains as evidence of a tide turning, but the overall picture is mixed. Labour is expected to take majority control in Milton Keynes, Hyndburn and Hartlepool, and to come close in Tamworth, Thurrock and Walsall. Significant gains are also predicted in North East Lincolnshire, Peterborough, Rugby, Walsall and Lincoln. The Liberal Democrats are targeting Dudley, Milton Keynes, Southend and Thurrock. In Bristol, the Greens hope to consolidate their status as the largest party. London remains a Labour stronghold, with Sadiq Khan expected to win a third term as mayor, but the party is losing ground to the Greens in the capital, its vote share falling significantly since the July 2024 general election.
The results will arrive in waves on Friday into Saturday, with the counting process taking three days due to the variety of positions being elected. The elections confirm that the United Kingdom has entered an era of messy multiparty politics, with the combined vote share of the two main parties declining towards levels last seen in 2005 and 2010. Reform UK has achieved significant results under the first-past-the-post system that historically prevented far-right parties from gaining substantial power, and the Green Party now presents a serious left-wing challenge. The rise of independents, particularly on Gaza, signals a further fragmentation of the electorate. For Keir Starmer, the question is not merely how many seats are lost, but whether the coalition that delivered his landslide general election victory can survive the pressures of disillusionment from every side.
